Chronic non-communicable diseases correspond to the main cause of death in the world and have inadequate nutrition as one of its main modifiable risk factors, highlighting the excessive consumption of sodium and its association with cardiovascular diseases, mediated by blood pressure. This study evaluated the impact of different policy scenarios for reducing sodium consumption from processed and ultra-processed foods in the prevention of deaths due to cardiovascular outcomes in the adult population in Brazil. We used secondary data from public reports and databases of the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS) and population surveys. We analyzed the impacts, up to 2027, of three scenarios: maintenance of the current voluntary targets, and two mandatory scenarios, considering the lowest targets in the Americas and the lowest global targets. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) analyzed the deaths prevented or delayed from sodium consumption in such scenarios. In 2027, more than 72,000 deaths would be attributed to excess sodium; the voluntary goals would result in the prevention or postponement of up to 4,001 (95% uncertainty intervals - 95%UI: 1,611-6,563) deaths, while the mandatory scenarios would result in the prevention of 9,704 (95%UI: 3,955-15,665) and 15,561 (95%UI: 6,350-25,096) deaths from cardiovascular diseases, considering the lower regional and international targets, respectively. The findings suggest that the maintenance of voluntary targets has limited impact when compared to possible and more restrictive scenarios of reducing sodium content in processed and ultra-processed foods and reinforce the need to adopt measures with greater effectiveness in the country.
Keywords:
Sodium; Food; Noncommunicable Diseases; Simulation Technique; Mortality