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Inflação inercial sob mudanças de regime: análise a partir de um modelo MS-ARFIMA, 1944-2009

The main goal of this paper is search for the long run dependence in the Brazilian inflation rate allowing regime switching by the MS-ARFIMA model. The principal contribution of this paper is the simultaneous and consistent estimation of longmemory coefficient d and the several regimes that encompass them. The results enable us to conclude that there were two regimes in the Brazilian economy with high persistence: hyperinflation regime and low inflation regime. The long run memory of inflation rate is dependent upon regime switching. The low inflation regime is the more persistent one.

Inertial Inflation; MS-ARFIMA; Long Run Dependence


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