Abstract
This study addressed the effects of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructure on global economic growth, analyzing a sample of 122 countries from 2005 to 2017. The methodology, following Hansen (1999)HANSEN, B. E. Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, v. 93, n. 2, p. 345-368, 1999., segmented the sample based on per capita GDP, revealing distinct impacts of ICTs, depending on each country’s specific threshold value. Broadband, in the first regime, showed no statistical significance, while mobile cellular subscriptions and broadband in the second regime exhibited more pronounced coefficients. In the third regime, these subscriptions maintained a positive impact, albeit with a lesser effect. The analysis of macroeconomic factors revealed that trade negatively affects countries in the first two regimes, unemployment has a greater impact in the second regime, and final consumption expenditure by public administrations affects all regimes, decreasing with the increase in per capita GDP. Theoretical implications emphasize the need for flexible approaches in formulating theories about the relationship between ICTs and economic growth. In practical implications, recommendations for ICT investment policies and adaptation of trade policies according to threshold regimes are highlighted. The results indicate that investment policies in ICT infrastructure can effectively drive economic growth. Scientific contributions include the refinement of exploratory models, empirical validation of the global relevance of ICTs, and support for evidence-based policy development. Despite the contributions, limitations related to access to complete data are acknowledged, suggesting future research for in-depth analysis.
Keywords
Information and Communication Technologies; Economic growth; Macroeconomics; Threshold