Development opportunities: economic complexity as a driver for São Paulo

Ávila, Matheus; Luna, Ivette

doi:10.1590/1982-3533.2022v31n3art05

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Original articles • Economia e Sociedade 31 (3) • Sep-Dec 2022 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-3533.2022v31n3art05 copy

Development opportunities: economic complexity as a driver for São Paulo

Oportunidades de desenvolvimento: complexidade econômica como driver para São Paulo

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

The study analyzes the growth and development opportunities for cities in the Brazilian state of São Paulo, considering economic complexity. Our hypothesis is that the structural heterogeneity in Brazil, and in São Paulo, creates regional inequality. Therefore, cities have different development trajectories depending on their current economic capacities and productive structures. The level of economic complexity is the measurement of an economy’s ability to produce goods with a higher (or lower) level of embedded knowledge. Applying this theory to cities in the state of São Paulo indicates substantially unequal levels of complexity in the state territory, with the best indicators centered around cities such as São Paulo and Campinas. A correlation was found between the municipalities’ current level of complexity, their levels of production, and complexity outlook. Thus, based on the opportunities presented for each municipality and their engagement in this transformation process, cities will develop at different speeds and inequalities will emerge.

Keywords:
Economic complexity; São Paulo; Development; Inequality

	ICEa SP	ICE MUN	COI SP	COI MUN	Diversity SP	Diversity MUN
Observations	379	235	379	235	379	235
Average	1,7912	0,0000	1,4489	0,0000	24,6649	121,2809
Std-dev	7,0961	1,0021	3,4915	1,0021	41,5895	117,3223
Minimum	-2,9775	-2,5384	-1,4599	-1,5822	1,0000	5,0000
10%	-0,0726	-1,3177	0,0000	-0,9347	1,0000	19,0000
20%	-0,0085	-0,8924	0,0000	-0,8271	2,0000	29,0000
30%	-0,0004	-0,5548	0,0000	-0,7260	3,0000	41,0000
40%	0,0004	-0,2883	0,0000	-0,6026	4,0000	57,0000
50%	0,0122	-0,0414	0,0348	-0,4058	8,0000	78,0000
60%	0,1197	0,2839	0,1906	-0,0053	13,0000	109,4000
70%	0,4337	0,6366	0,6541	0,2249	21,6000	142,8000
80%	1,4807	0,9793	1,8504	0,8717	37,0000	196,8000
90%	4,0626	1,2854	4,2429	1,6245	72,2000	284,0000
Maximum	106,3728	2,2818	25,5093	3,4465	352,0000	610,0000

	COI~ICEa	ICEa~Diversity	COI~Diversity
β₀	0,755***	-1,434***	-0,289***
β₁	0,387***	0,131***	0,071***
R²	0,620	0,587	0,704
R² adjusted	0,619	0,586	0,703

	GDP per capita~ICEa	GDP_IND~ICEa	GDP_AGRO~ICEa
β0	10,578***	13,39***	10,081***
β1	0,074***	0,418***	-0,055
R²	0,195	0,596	0,012
R² adjusted	0,191	0,595	0,008
Prob( > \| t \|)	0,000	0,000	0,086

Name	COI	ICEa	Diversity	COI Ranking	ICEa Ranking	Diversity Ranking
São Paulo	25,51	106,37	352	1	1	1
São Bernardo do Campo	24,03	46,16	127	2	2	13
São José dos Campos	22,74	19,4	72	3	9	39
Sorocaba	20,15	20,28	150	4	7	9
Campinas	15,98	19,77	213	5	8	4
Barueri	14,75	22,52	194	6	6	5
Guarulhos	14,21	32,43	249	7	3	2
Piracicaba	13,79	11,12	66	8	18	44
Taubaté	13,55	10,19	95	9	19	22
Jundiaí	12,41	25,47	231	10	4	3
Pitangueiras	-0,05	-0,01	2	370	307	296
Vista Alegre do Alto	-0,05	-0,02	4	371	324	234
Marapoama	-0,05	-0,01	2	372	315	304
Tietê	-0,06	0,46	36	373	111	80
Peruíbe	-0,07	-0,02	8	374	325	182
Aracariguama	-0,12	2,24	19	375	59	121
Bocaína	-0,13	-0,01	3	376	302	258
Santo Antônio de Posse	-0,19	-1,13	14	377	374	146
Jardinópolis	-0,38	-0,02	8	378	320	181
Cubatão	-1,46	4,56	17	379	33	134

HS2 Classification	Total products with positive GIC	Average GIC of the group
84-Nuclear reactors, boilers, machines, mechanical apparatus and instruments, and their parts	1643	0,065
85-Electrical machines, apparatus and materials, and parts thereof; sound recording or reproducing apparatus, television image, and sound recording or reproducing apparatus, and parts and accessories thereof	1230	0,053
39-Plastics and their works	823	0,038
73-Works of cast iron, iron, or steel	673	0,033
90-Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, control or precision instruments and apparatus; medical-surgical instruments and apparatus; its parts and accessories	471	0,071
40-Rubber and its works	392	0,042
29-Organic chemicals	376	0,120
48-Paper and cardboard; cellulose, paper, or cardboard works	295	0,062
72-Cast iron, iron, and steel	283	0,113
82-Tools, cutlery, and cutlery artifacts, and their parts, of common metal	249	0,093
38-Several products from the chemical industries	231	0,076
76- Aluminum and its works	201	0,058
87-Motor vehicles, tractors, cycles, and other land vehicles, their parts and accessories	197	0,090
83-Miscellaneous works of common metals	192	0,059

Instituto de Economia da Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Publicações Rua Pitágoras, 353 - CEP 13083-857, Tel.: +55 19 3521-5708 - Campinas - SP - Brazil
E-mail: publicie@unicamp.br

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[TFN1] Source: SECEX. Elaborated by the authors.