The limits of the industry's contribution to development in the Lula and Dilma administrations: a new version of peripheral industrialism?

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the limits of the contribution of Brazilian industry to development in two different moments: the cycle of relative growth between 2003-2010 and the deceleration and reversal between 2011-2015. For this, the structural decomposition methodology is used through the shift-share technique, in order to measure such contribution in three dimensions: (i) productivity, (ii) wages and average remuneration and (iii) sophistication of exports in relation to imports. The article relates to Wilson Cano's reflections considering three dimensions: (i) its understanding of development and underdevelopment as historical processes, (ii) the justification of the centrality of industrialization as an instrument to circumvent the reproduction of the structural heterogeneity characteristic of underdevelopment and (iii) the centrality of national development as a vector of such strategy. The paper suggests the consolidation of a pattern of structural organization of Brazilian industry that limits its capacity to contribute to development, independently of economic cycles. These limits would materialize in the incapacity to create a virtuous development cycle that fosters the reconfiguration of the productive structure. Finally, it is concluded that these limits are associated with the phenomenon that this paper suggests is interpreted as a new version of peripheral (and now regressive) industrialism.

Keywords:
Cano; Wilson; 1937-2020; Industry; Development; Structural transformation; Peripheral