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Inflation targeting, growth and macroeconomic stability: an analysis based on a post-Keynesian macrodynamic model

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects on economic growth of adopting an inflation targeting regime, in which central banks set the short-term interest rate as a response to deviations of inflation from its target, and of output from its potential. In order to do this, a non-linear post-Keynesian growth model which allows the existence of more than one short-term equilibrium point, is created. It is concluded that maintaining a balanced short-term growth path after exogenous shocks depends largely on fiscal policy. In addition, there are three possible long-term equilibrium configurations, two of which are inherently unstable. Long-term equilibrium stability of the third configuration depends on how central banks respond to deviations in inflation and output. More precisely, we show that more cautious behavior from the Central Bank by only increasing short term interest rates when absolutely necessary could help the economy achieve a balanced growth-path in the long-run.

Inflation targeting; Interest rates; Economic growth; Dynamics; Post-Keynesian economics


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