Is Brazil desindustrializing? A study of the classical approach and alternative analyses between 1998 and 2014

Abstract

There is great controversy in the Brazilian economic literature regarding the hypothesis of Brazilian deindustrialization. The different diagnoses are due to the different definitions of the process and the analysis criteria. The present study will address the theme both from the classical definition used in the seminal work of Rowthorn and Wells (1987) and according to three alternative concepts: i) premature deindustrialization; ii) the "Cambridge vision" and iii) structural change within the manufacturing industry. The results show that Brazilian deindustrialization is more intense when analyzed considering the alternative approaches, since this process occurs at a lower level of aggregate productivity than the deindustrialization in advanced countries, the productive structure of the manufacturing sector is increasing its participation in low productivity sectors and has presented a deficit trade balance since 2008.

Keywords:
De-industrialization; Structural change; Industrial specialization