Existe realmente convergência de renda entre países?

Abstract

The most studies on income convergence imply that countries are isolated geographic units, not considering the underlying spatial interaction (spatial dependence and heterogeneity). This paper investigates the analysis of income convergence among countries incorporating the neighborhood effect provided by the spatial interaction and, thereby, controlling for spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. To do so, a local spatial model was constructed over five-year period between 1985 and 2005 for 148 countries. Main findings reveal the existence of multiple equilibria considering the analysis of local convergence. A group of countries is approaching a particular equilibrium due to the existence of correlated attributes or because it was in an initial location corresponding that equilibrium, fact in line with the convergence clubs and multiple equilibria. The convergence intervals defined here result from how economic growth in a country progresses as for its pace, which is conditioned to its initial socioeconomic characteristics in relation to the growth of other countries and not in relation to its own growth trajectory. Furthermore, in contrast to convergence clubs, these convergence intervals are defined ex-post, taking into consideration the growth dynamics specific to each country.

Keywords
Local income convergence; Spatial heterogeneity; Geographically weighted regression