Resumo
Nós estimamos o impacto de políticas restritivas de distanciamento social sobre isolamento, casos e mortes de COVID-19 e emprego no Brasil. Compilando decretos de distanciamento social e combinando-os com dados públicos, nós identificamos um conjunto de municípios tratados que adotaram lockdown entre maio e junho de 2021 no Estado de São Paulo e construímos um grupo de controle com cidades dos mesmos Departamentos Regionais de Saúde. Nós estimamos os efeitos do lockdown usando um modelo de Diferença-em-Diferenças com efeitos fixos de dois níveis e adoção escalonada. Nossas conclusões sugerem que a política aumentou o isolamento social uma semana após sua adoção, diminuiu os casos a partir de duas semanas, reduziu as mortes a partir de quatro semanas e não teve impactos significativos no emprego.
Palavras-chave
COVID-19; lockdown; mortalidade; emprego; Brasil
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Notes: The treatment group is composed by the following municipalities: Altinópolis, Araraquara, Batatais, Bebedouro, Brodowski, Colômbia, Cristais Paulista, Franca, Itirapuã, Jardinópolis, Patrocínio Paulista, Restinga, Ribeirão Preto, São José da Bela Vista, Taiúva. The control group is composed by all the other municipalities in the Regional Health Departments of Araraquara, Barretos, Franca, or Ribeirão Preto.
Notes: The regression used to elaborate this graph contains one indicator variable for each day from 2 weeks before the lockdown adoption until 7 weeks later and was estimated with weighted least squares, where the weight is the municipality's population. The dependent variable is calculated as a 7-day moving average. The regression controls for municipality and day fixed effects and municipal-specific trends. Robust standard errors were used to construct the 95% confidence interval represented by the dashed lines.
Notes: The regression used to elaborate this graph contains one indicator variable for each day from 2 weeks before the lockdown adoption until 7 weeks later and was estimated with weighted least squares, where the weight is the municipality's population. The dependent variable is calculated as a 7-day moving average per 100,000 inhabitants. The regression controls for municipality and day fixed effects and municipal-specific trends. Robust standard errors were used to construct the 95% confidence interval represented by the dashed lines.
Notes: The regression used to elaborate this graph contains one indicator variable for each day from 2 weeks before the lockdown adoption until 7 weeks later and was estimated with weighted least squares, where the weight is the municipality's population. The dependent variable is calculated as a 7-day moving average per 100,000 inhabitants. The regression controls for municipality and day fixed effects and municipal-specific trends. Robust standard errors were used to construct the 95% confidence interval represented by the dashed lines.
Notes: The regression used to elaborate this graph contains one indicator variable for each month from 1 month before the lockdown adoption until 4 months later and was estimated with weighted least squares, where the weight is the municipality's population. The dependent variable is calculated as per 100,000 inhabitants. The regression controls for municipality and day fixed effects. Robust standard errors were used to construct the 95% confidence interval represented by the vertical capped lines.
Notes: The regressions used to elaborate these graphs contain one indicator variable for each period before and after the lockdown adoption and were estimated with weighted least squares, where the weight is the municipality's population. From (a) to (c), the dependent variable is calculated as a 7-day moving average. In (b) to (d), the dependent variable is calculated as per 100,000 inhabitants. The regressions control for municipality and time fixed effects. Robust standard errors were used to construct the 95% confidence interval represented by the vertical capped lines. The control group is selected using propensity score matching (PSM).
Notes: The treatment group is composed by the following municipalities: Altinópolis, Araraquara, Batatais, Bebedouro, Brodowski, Colômbia, Cristais Paulista, Franca, Itirapuã, Jardinópolis, Patrocínio Paulista, Restinga, Ribeirão Preto, São José da Bela Vista, Taiúva. The control group is composed by the following municipalities: Aramina, Boa Esperança do Sul, Guaraci, Igarapava, Ituverava, Itápolis, Jaborandi, Jaboticabal, Jeriquara, Monte Azul Paulista, Morro Agudo, Motuca, Santa Cruz da Esperança, Santa Rita do Passa Quatro, Serra Azul, Serrana, Tabatinga, Vista Alegre do Alto, Tabatinga, Vista Alegre do Alto. All municipalities that are not ``Out of sample'' are in the Regional Health Departments of Araraquara, Barretos, Franca or Ribeirão Preto.
Notes: These figures replicate the main analysis but using a placebo lockdown policy “adopted” one year before the actual policy. The regressions control for municipality and day fixed effects and municipal-specific trends. Robust standard errors were used to construct the 95% confidence interval represented by the dashed lines.