Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil♦

Teixeira, Fernando Ormonde; Oliveira, Ingrid Christyne Luquett de; Ferreira, Pedro Costa

doi:10.1590/0101-41614733fip

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Articles • Estud. Econ. 47 (3) • Jul-Sep 2017 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-41614733fip copy

Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil^♦ 1 Results are similar in both models. The second model is a complication of the first. This is why we do not interpret the coefficients associated with model 1. Nevertheless, results of model 1 can be seen in Table 3.

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer's inflation expectations. We combine the FGV's Consumer Survey with the indices of inflation (IPCA and government regulated prices), professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report, and media data which we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer's forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and city of residence as major elements when analyzing micro-data. Aggregate data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers' expectations and professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations' formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.

Keywords:
Inflation expectations; Media; Brazil; Consumers

Geographic zone	"Income 1 -up to R$2100"	"Income 2 -R$2100,01 to R$4800"	"Income 3 -R$4800,01 to R$9600"	"Income 4 -more than R$9600"	Total
Belo Horizonte	1,60	1,64	1,64	1,72	6,60
Brasília	2,24	2,57	3,11	3,28	11,20
Porto Alegre	1,16	1,37	1,45	1,45	5,43
Recife	0,71	0,71	0,67	0,67	2,76
Salvador	1,79	1,37	1,16	1,00	5,32
Rio de Janeiro	6,26	6,88	6,51	6,26	25,91
São Paulo	10,33	10,58	10,08	11,79	42,78
Brazil	24,09	25,12	24,62	26,17	100,00

	No Trimming	Trimming Boxplot	Trimming Percentil	IPCA
Mean	8,85	7,28	7,74	6,09
Median	8,39	7,02	7,43	5,91
Std Dev	0,18	0,12	0,13	0,15
Std Error	0,02	0,02	0,02	0,02
Q1	7,77	6,59	6,95	5,10
Q3	9,48	7,60	8,06	6,52
Max	14,67	11,49	12,67	10,71
Min	5,94	5,04	5,45	3,69
Kurtosis	2,17	2,93	3,16	1,44
Skewness	1,50	1,59	1,75	1,21
Obs.	105,00	105,00	105,00	105,00

Consumer_t
	(1)	(2)	Observations	% Participation	Avg.
< R$2100			25091	16,06	9,82
> R$2100 e ≤ R$4800	-0,809^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	-0,948^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	37104	23,74	8,89
> R$4800 e ≤ R$ 9600	-0,984^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	-1,201^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	42986	27,51	8,65
> R$9600	-1,688^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	-1,959^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	51072	32,69	7,94

Primary School			12943	8,28	10,04
High School	-0,359^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	-0,393^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	42491	27,19	9,16
Undergraduate	-1,200^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	-1,101^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	60442	38,68	8,08
Graduate	-0,463^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	-0,945^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	40377	25,85	8,57

São Paulo			69456	44,45	8,59
Rio de Janeiro	0,440^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	0,335^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	34695	22,20	9,22
Belo Horizonte	-0,161^* * Significant at the 10 percent level	-0,182^ Significant at the 5 percent level	12577	8,05	8,28
Brasília	0,016	-0,111	15275	9,78	8,24
Salvador	-0,365^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	-0,339^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	7041	4,50	8,34
Porto Alegre	0,733^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	0,803^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	9389	6,01	9,41
Recife	-1,175^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	-0,924^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	7820	5,01	7,63

< 35 years			20289	12,98	7,39
≥ 35 e < 45 years	1,275^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	0,832^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	27888	17,85	8,52
≥ 45 e < 60 years	1,795^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	1,053^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	61176	39,15	8,97
≥ 60 years	1,882^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	0,874^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	46900	30,02	8,90

Mean			82525	52,81	8,12
Women	1,011^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	1,191^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level	73728	47,19	9,26

Constant	8,326^* ***** Significant at the 1 percent level

N	153,253	156,253
R²	0,015	0,472
Adjusted R²	0,014	0,471

		Dependent variable:
		ΔConsumer_t
	Coefficient	Model (1)	Model (2)	Model (3)	Model (4)	Model (5)
ΔIPCA_t-1	β₁	0,818^* ***** p < 0,001	0,743^* ***** p < 0,001	0,731^* ***** p < 0,001	0,814^* ***** p < 0,001
ΔFocus_t	β₂	-0,072	-0,181
ΔRegulated_t-1	β´₁					0,241^* ***** p < 0,001
Consumer_t-1	γ	-0,396^* ***** p < 0,001	-0,430^* ***** p < 0,001	-0,422^* ***** p < 0,001	-0,395^* ***** p < 0,001	-0,254^* ***** p < 0,001
ΔIPCA_t-2	φ ₁	0,797^* ***** p < 0,001	0,709^* ***** p < 0,001	0,748^* ***** p < 0,001	0,846^* ***** p < 0,001
ΔFocus_t-1	φ ₂	0,160	-0,251
ΔRegulated_t-2	φ´₁					-0,224^* ***** p < 0,001
Target^T	φ ₃	0,648^ p < 0,05;	0,640^* ***** p < 0,001	0,818^* ***** p < 0,001	0,765^* ***** p < 0,001	1,614^* ***** p < 0,001
Media_t	θ ₁		0,352^* ***** p < 0,001	0,311^* ***** p < 0,001		0,530^* ***** p < 0,001
dummy 2014	θ ₂	0,521^* ***** p < 0,001	0,492^* ***** p < 0,001	0,563^* ***** p < 0,001	0,564^* ***** p < 0,001	0,317^* * p < 0,1;
Observations		103	103	103	103	103
R²		0,319	0,362	0,351	0,315	0,259
Adjusted R²		0,269	0,308	0,31	0,28	0,213
Residual Std. Error		0,488 (df = 96)	0,436 (df = 95)	0,435 (df = 97)	0,444 (df = 98)	0,465 (df = 97)
F Statistic		6,419^* ***** p < 0,001 (df = 7; 96)	6,729^* ***** p < 0,001 (df = 8; 95)	8,730^* ***** p < 0,001 (df = 6;97)	9,022^* ***** p < 0,001 (df = 5;98)	5,658^* ***** p < 0,001 (df = 6;97)

	Dependent variable:
	Gap_t
Coluna1	(1)	(2)
Media_t	-3,235 (4,428)	-4,024 (4,097)
dummy 2014	-1,772 (3,687)
Constant	48,375^* ***** p < 0,001 (1,737)	48,056^* ***** p < 0,001 (1,599)
Observations	105	105
R²	0,012	0,009
Ajusted R²	-0,008	-0,0003
Residual Std. Error	15,144 (df = 102)	15,087 (df = 103)
F Statistic	0,594 (df = 2;102)	0,965 (df = 1; 103)

Departamento de Economia; Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária da Universidade de São Paulo (FEA-USP) Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, 908 - FEA 01 - Cid. Universitária, CEP: 05508-010 - São Paulo/SP - Brasil, Tel.: (55 11) 3091-5803/5947 - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
E-mail: estudoseconomicos@usp.br

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Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil♦ 1 Results are similar in both models. The second model is a complication of the first. This is why we do not interpret the coefficients associated with model 1. Nevertheless, results of model 1 can be seen in Table 3.

Abstract

Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil^♦ 1 Results are similar in both models. The second model is a complication of the first. This is why we do not interpret the coefficients associated with model 1. Nevertheless, results of model 1 can be seen in Table 3.