A Sustentabilidade do endividamento externo brasileiro no período 1963-72: uma análise empírica^♦

Abstract

This article analyzes Brazil's external vulnerability at the beginning of João Goulart's presidentialist term (1963-64). Based on projections for the indicator net external liabilities as a share of the exports of goods and services for the period 1963-72, it shows that Brazil was externally vulnerable in 1963, but this situation could be reverted in case of a sufficiently high exports' growth rate. The projections were then contrasted with the actual data of the period 1963-72. Data showed that Brazil's external vulnerability was reduced thanks to exports growth, but also dispute the idea that there was an actual external adjustment process in the period.

Keywords
Net external liabilities; Exports; External vulnerability