The negative campaign as an electoral strategy from the perspective of political consultants: who to attack, when to attack and how to attack<sup>1</sup>

Borba, Felipe; Vasconcellos, Fábio

doi:10.1590/1809-58442022107en

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Articles • Intercom, Rev. Bras. Ciênc. Comun. 45 • 2022 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-58442022107en copy

The negative campaign as an electoral strategy from the perspective of political consultants: who to attack, when to attack and how to attack¹

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Abstract

This article analyzes negative advertising as an electoral strategy. The objective is to assess three basic questions: who to attack, when to attack and how to attack. To do so, we conducted a research survey with a sample of Brazilian political consultants in order to understand how negative campaign strategies vary according to the circumstances. The results indicate that the decision to attack the opponent should be used in the final stage of the campaign, focusing on the opponent’s proposals and preferably via social networks. The decision about who to attack is influenced by the expectation of victory and positioning in the polls, but the dynamics of voting intentions change the target of the attacks and the intensity with which negative advertising should be used.

Keywords
Elections; Public Opinion; Negative Campaign; Electoral Campaign; Expert Survey

	Agree	Partially agree	Neither agree nor disagree	Partially disagree	Disagree	Total
Negative advertising is a legitimate tool in electoral campaigns	44.4%	36.8%	1.9%	10.4%	6.6%	100%
Negative advertising is more efficient in the final stage of the campaign	23.8%	35.3%	10.5%	13.4%	17.2%	100%
The chances of success of negative advertising are greater in the second round than in the first round	20.0%	26.7%	14.3%	17.2%	21.9%	100%
Negative advertising is more efficient when it aims at proposals rather than personal traits	30.5%	35.3%	9.5%	11.4%	14.3%	100%
The risks of negative advertising are smaller when an opponent initiates them	26.7%	27.6%	13.4%	12.4%	20%	100%

Scenario	Strategy	Percentage
Your candidate leads the polls and has the right presence in the second round. The remaining contestants have resorted to attacking your candidate. In this case, you would advise a strategy of attacks aimed at:	1. Almost exclusively the candidate in second place 2. Second place more, third place less 3. Second and third place equally 4. Third place more, second place less 5. Almost exclusively third place 6. Neither	5.3 14.7 17.9 2.1 0.0 62.1
Your candidate is in second place and polls indicate that the opponent leading the dispute will be elected in the first round. In this case, you would advise a strategy of attacks aimed at:	1. Almost exclusively the first place 2. First place more, third place less 3. First and third place equally 4. Third place more, first place less 5. Almost exclusively third place 6. Neither	63.4 12.9 9.7 5.4 2.2 7.5
Your candidate is placed second and the polls indicate that the leading candidate will not win in the first round. In this case, you would advise a strategy of attacks aimed at:	1. Almost exclusively the first place 2. First place more, third place less 3. First and third place equally 4. Third place more, first place less 5. Almost exclusively the third place 6. Neither	20.2 15.9 10.6 20.2 4.3 30.8
Your candidate is placed second and the polls indicate that the candidate placed third has become a threat and might risk your place in the second round. In this case, you would advise a strategy of attacks aimed at:	1. Almost exclusively the first place 2. First place more, third place less 3. First and third place equally 4. Third place more, first place less 5. Almost exclusively the third place 6. Neither	2.2 6.4 20.4 39.8 22.6 9.7
Now your candidate is in third and with chances of advancing to the second round. In this case, you would advise a strategy of attacks aimed at:	1. Almost exclusively the first place 2. First place more, second place less 3. First and second place equally 4. Second place more, first place less 5. Almost exclusively the second place 6. Neither	4.3 1.1 34.4 38.7 18.3 4.3

Scenarios	Almost exclusively positive	Mostly positive, a little negative	Half positive, half negative	Mostly negative, a little positive	Almost exclusively negative
The candidate you work for has a comfortable lead according to the polls. The campaign has been relatively attack free. If you can win by a comfortable margin, what kind of strategy would you advise:	79.4%	20.6%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
The candidate you work for has a comfortable lead in the polls, but his adversary has initiated a series of attacks that might jeopardize the victory. You can react using positive or negative advertising, or a combination of both. In this situation, what kind of strategy would you advise:	31.9%	58.7%	8.3%	1.0%	0.0%
Your adversary has initiated a series of attacks against the candidate you work for and the effects have been devastating. Your candidate, once in the lead, now trails. You can react using positive or negative advertising, or a combination of both. In this situation, what kind of strategy would you advise:	14.4%	25.7%	43.3%	11.3%	5.2%
Your candidate is far behind in the polls with virtually no chances. In this situation, what kind of strategy would you advise:	30.9%	14.4%	32.9%	15.5%	6.2%
Your adversary is not as strong as in the last scenario. You are trailing but the gap is not so large and there is still a chance of victory. In this situation, what kind of strategy would you advise:	17.7%	53.2%	19.8%	9.4%	0.0%

Sociedade Brasileira de Estudos Interdisciplinares da Comunicação (INTERCOM) AV. BRIG. LUÍS ANTÔNIO, 2.050 - CONJ. 36- BELA VISTA, Zip code: 01318-912 , Phone and WhatsApp: (+55 11) 9.4178-8528 - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
E-mail: revistaintercom@intercom.org.br

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[1] Felipe Borba

Earned his Phd in Political Science from the Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos of the Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (IESP-UERJ). He is an adjunct professor and coordinator of the graduate studies programs in Political Science at the Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UNIRIO). He also coordinates the Electoral Investigation Group (Grupo de Investigação Eleitoral - and GIEL), being a scholar for the Young Scientist of the Rio de Janeiro Research Development Agency and also the recipient of a CNPq research grant (PQ-2). His research interests are elections, political communication and electoral violence.

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The negative campaign as an electoral strategy from the perspective of political consultants: who to attack, when to attack and how to attack1

Abstract

The negative campaign as an electoral strategy from the perspective of political consultants: who to attack, when to attack and how to attack¹