In the Amazon was observed in recent decades growth social, economic and environmental impacts caused by decrease in river levels. The drought events in the region in the years 2010 and 2005 resulted in serious problems. 25/10/2010 In the Rio Negro has reached the minimum quota of 13.63 meters, 1 inch smaller than the largest recorded in the history of measurements was 13.64 on 30/10/1963. At various times of drought is declared a state of emergency in many cities, due to the isolation caused by the interruption in the mobility and accessibility, because in most of these the only form of access is by river transportation. Thus, aiming to support the prevention of adverse effects of the "isolation in the Amazon" was held hydrologic modeling to predict the dynamics of changes in the dimensions of the rivers. The tool is based on statistical model ARIMA, and how variable the model analysis and support rivers levels. The tool allowed the processing, analysis and generation of information to forecast river levels and consequently on the craft travel planning, using a web system to provide access to the model.
statistical modeling; river transportation; Amazon waterway