MURDER AND DRUG TRAFFICKING SPATIAL DEPENDENCE

Abstract

This paper analyzes the correlation between drug trafficking and homicides in the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais - Brazil, to identify the spatial relationship between these phenomena in the urban environment. Based on data from the police reports in the period of 2007 to 2016, the spatial patterns of these criminal typologies and their spatial association were evaluated. The data were grouped on a 500-meter square grid, showing the main hot spots for the two types of crimes, as well as their recurrence. To complement the analysis, an indicator was proposed based on the assumptions of Ousey and Lee (2002), who describe the pre-existing social conditions for the relationship between drug trafficking and homicides to be established. From the methodology adopted, it was possible to verify the spatial association between the two criminal classifications, as well as the tendency for clusters of cells with a high incidence of crimes to be formed. There was also an association between the empirical data and those regions of the city where the pre-existing social conditions that encourage the association between drug trafficking and homicides are present, reinforcing the idea that the illegal drug market is a contingent cause of lethal violence.

Keywords:
Violence; Homicide; Drug Trafficking; Spatial Analysis; Spatial correlation