Causality in economics with time series data: a guided tour since Classical Antiquity

Abstract

This paper frames the study of causality in economics, with time series data, within the broader context of the philosophical question of causality. To that purpose, we demonstrate that the spectrum of existing approaches in Economics results from the responses that have been given, so far, to the ontological, epistemological and pragmatic problems of causality within this discipline. We further conclude that, far from being the only possible, correct or adequate answer, the ubiquitous Granger causality is just one of those answers. In a broader perspective, our work provides a concise but articulated and historically grounded view of the origins, evolution, and problematics of the analysis of causality in Economics.

Keywords:
causality; Granger causality; Cowles Commission; philosophy of science