Estimativa do subregistro de crimes violentos contra a propriedade aplicando análise de fronteira estocástica para o estado de Minas Gerais, Brasil

Moreira, Gustavo Carvalho; Kassouf, Ana Lucia; Justus, Marcelo

doi:10.1590/0103-6351/4202

Gustavo Carvalho Moreira

Universidade Federal de São João del Rei – UFSJ, São João del Rei, Minas Gerais, Brasil. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9526-0267.

Gustavo Carvalho Moreira - gustavocmoreira@usp.br Universidade Federal de São João del Rei – UFSJ, São João del Rei, Minas Gerais, Brasil. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9526-0267.

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9526-0267

Ana Lucia Kassouf

Professora Titular do Departamento de Economia da Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz – Esalq/Universidade de São Paulo, Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brasil. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1931-5972.

Ana Lucia Kassouf - anakassouf@usp.br Professora Titular do Departamento de Economia da Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz – Esalq/Universidade de São Paulo, Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brasil. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1931-5972.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1931-5972

Marcelo Justus

Professor e pesquisador do Instituto de Economia da Universidade de Campinas – IE/Unicamp, Campinas, São Paulo, Brasil. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8660-1779.

Marcelo Justus - mjustus@unicamp.br Professor e pesquisador do Instituto de Economia da Universidade de Campinas – IE/Unicamp, Campinas, São Paulo, Brasil. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8660-1779.

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8660-1779

About the authors

Gustavo Carvalho Moreira - gustavocmoreira@usp.br

Universidade Federal de São João del Rei – UFSJ, São João del Rei, Minas Gerais, Brasil.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9526-0267.

Ana Lucia Kassouf - anakassouf@usp.br

Professora Titular do Departamento de Economia da Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz – Esalq/Universidade de São Paulo, Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brasil.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1931-5972.

Marcelo Justus - mjustus@unicamp.br

Professor e pesquisador do Instituto de Economia da Universidade de Campinas – IE/Unicamp, Campinas, São Paulo, Brasil.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8660-1779.

Municipality	Crime rate	Underreporting (% of crime rate)	Corrected crime rate
1	90	50	135
2	100	30	130
3	110	10	121
4	120	0	120

	Description	E.S.
police	Number of military police officers in the municipality per 100 thousand inhabitants	-
income	Value of the total income of formal employees in the month of December divided by the number of employees	-
GDPpercapita	Gross domestic product per capita	?
young	Number of individuals residing in the municipality between 15 and 29 years of age per 100 thousand inhabitants	+
urban	Percentage of the population of the municipality living in an urban area	+
vulnerability	Value of transfers from the Bolsa Familia welfare programme in the year per 100 thousand inhabitants	+
Wcrime	Spatially lagged violent crime against property rate per 100 thousand inhabitants	+
crime(-1)	Lagged dependent variable	+

	RE	FE	DEF	END
police	0.0088 (0.0159)	0.0088 (0.0159)	*0.0016 (0.0010)	***-0.0004 (0.0000)
income	***-0.0120 (0.0019)	***-0.0120 (0.0019)	***0.0003 (0.0001)	***0.0300 (0.0060)
GDPpercapita	**-0.0002 (0.0000)	**-0.0002 (0.0000)	-0.0001 (0.0001)	*0.0267 (0.0143)
young	*-0.0007 (0.0000)	*-0.0007 (0.0000)	**0.0006 (0.0000)	***0.0001 (0.0000)
urban	0.1012 (0.0809)	0.1012 (0.0809)	3.0476*** (0.6452)	***0.0030 (0.0003)
vulnerability	**-0.0206 (0.0094)	**-0.0206 (0.0094)	*0.0520 (0.0359)	***0.00002 (0.0000)
Wcrime			***0.1666 (0.0178)	***0.3389 (0.0120)
crime(-1)				***0.0058 (0.0000)
N	9,097	9,097	9,097	6,616

Variable	LM test	P-value
crime	6,1170	0,0000
error term	0,7010	0,4024
crime and error term	0,7010	0,7043

	Mean	Standard deviation	Minimum	Maximum
FE	0.2120	0.0407	0.1999	0.4998
DEF	0.2500	0.0327	0.2034	0.3820
END	0.3273	0.1235	0.0077	0.8204

\begin{matrix} \ln L (y ∣ β, μ, σ) = cons \tan t - I \ln σ - I \ln ⊙ (- \frac{μ}{σ_{u}^{2}}) + \\ + \sum_{i} \ln ⊙ (\frac{μ}{σ λ} - \frac{ε_{i} λ}{σ}) - \frac{1}{2} \sum_{i} \ln {(\frac{ε_{i} + μ}{σ})}^{2} \end{matrix}

\begin{matrix} \ln y_{it} = [β_{0 t} - E (u_{it})] + \sum_{n} β_{n} \ln x_{nit} + v_{it} - [u_{it} - E (u_{it})] \\ = β_{0 t}^{*} + Σ_{n} β_{n} \ln x_{nit} + v_{it} - u_{it}^{*} \end{matrix}

W = [\begin{matrix} 0 & w_{kj} (d_{k, j}) & \dots & w_{k ι} (d_{k, ι}) \\ w_{jk} (d_{j, k}) & 0 & \dots & w_{jt} (d_{j, t}) \\ \dots & \dots & \dots & \dots \\ w_{ι k} (d_{ι, k}) & w_{ι j} (d_{ι, j}) & \dots & 0 \end{matrix}]

Variable		Mean	E.S.	Min.	Max.
police	Total	142.39	88.81	0.00	1,222.13
	Between		83.18	25.36	771.50
	Within		31.22	-383.22	649.69
income	Total	1,992.23	588.06	79.23	7,057.84
	Between		496.78	1,003.39	6,769.22
	Within		315.09	-32.23	5,755.11
GDPpercapita	Total	7,821.54	10,326.38	982.9	283,298.20
	Between		8,236.60	2,185.42	129,076.10
	Within		6,234.22	-87,397.49	234,431.90
young	Total	25,498.18	2,389.90	16,493.26	45,506.51
	Between		2,083.49	19,223.92	36,710.41
	Within		1,172.65	17,737.01	38,774.15
urban	Total	66.52	19.38	14.60	100.00
	Between		18.34	16.86	100.00
	Within		6.26	2.33	134.02
vulnerability	Total	162.53	100.09	4.32	550.31
	Between		74.73	27.69	363.97
	Within		66.62	-94.61	412.80
Wcrime	Total	69.89	13.82	39.02	219.97
	Between		6.87	56.52	149.80
	Within		11.99	10.78	140.07
crime(-1)	Total	69.86	109.80	0.00	1,694.71
	Between		98.77	0.00	1,149.69
	Within		48.06	-442.58	714.54

[1] Gustavo Carvalho Moreira - gustavocmoreira@usp.br

Universidade Federal de São João del Rei – UFSJ, São João del Rei, Minas Gerais, Brasil.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9526-0267.

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Estimativa do subregistro de crimes violentos contra a propriedade aplicando análise de fronteira estocástica para o estado de Minas Gerais, Brasil

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