In this article we show that changes in the support base for Lula that become more evident in the 2006 elections are best explained by political variables. For this we turn to an original database, aggregated at the ballot station level, and we extend the analysis including other parties and elections preceding that election. On the one hand, an explanation of what happened in 2006 needs to explain what happened in 2002, which is when the PT reaches the presidency. On the other hand, given the compositional character of the vote, the explanation of what happens to the votes of the PT should explain what happens to the votes of his opponents. We note that the success of the PT and the expansion of its base from 2006 occur after the implosion of the PSDB in 2002 and the absence of competitive opponents. Explanations based on the advantages brought by the coming of PT to power do not give an accurate account of these dynamics. We suggest that a better explanation should focus on the preeelection coordination strategies adopted by the parties.
presidential elections; electoral competition; parties; electoral coordination; Worker's Party; Brazilian Social Democracy Party
