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Where to go? The electoral trajectory of the mayors of Brazilian state capitals (1996-2014)

Abstract

The present work analyzes the trajectories of the mayors of the 26 Brazilian state capitals between 1996 and 2008 after entering office. It seeks to identify whether or not they sought new elected positions—if so, what were the positions specifically and what were the results of their endeavors—in order to verify the presence of a predominant pattern in such decisions. The research universe consists of 77 individuals, four municipal disputes (2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012), and five others at the state and national levels (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014). The main source of data is the TSE. The fact that these actors occupy the chief executive post of a municipality with high visibility and political and economic importance in their respective states was the starting point of the work, because these conditions provide the prospect that they may reach other relevant elective positions in the political hierarchy. When considering the specific situations of these mayors (re-elected, resigned to re-election, defeated, and resigned in office), the results indicate that the vast majority intends to continue in the political career, initially by renewing their terms and, subsequently, by seeking another office, with preference to the legislatures. The success rate in the search for reelection is high; however, when it comes to ambitions for a different position, defeats prevailed, and the safest position to be reached is that of federal deputy.

political career; mayor; political ambition; state capitals; elections

Centro de Estudos de Opinião Pública da Universidade Estadual de Campinas Cidade Universitária 'Zeferino Vaz", CESOP, Rua Cora Coralina, 100. Prédio dos Centros e Núcleos (IFCH-Unicamp), CEP: 13083-896 Campinas - São Paulo - Brasil, Tel.: (55 19) 3521-7093 - Campinas - SP - Brazil
E-mail: rop@unicamp.br