Opinión pública y potencias emergentes: percepciones de las diplomacias asertivas de Sudáfrica, Brasil y Turquía en encuestas nacionales y regionales

Mesquita, Rafael

Rafael Mesquita

Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Departamento de Ciência Política. Recife (PE), Brazil. German Institute of Global and Area Studies. Hamburg, Germany. E-mail: <rafael.mslima@ufpe.br>.

German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, Germany

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6042-1606

Figuras (4)
Tablas (11)

Thumbnail

Figure 1
: “Which country in Latin America has more leadership over the region?”

Thumbnail

Figure 2
: Answers to the question “On international matters, with which one of the following do you think Turkey should cooperate most closely?” (GMF and KHU)

Thumbnail

Figure 3
: “In your opinion, how much does the following country [South Africa] help your country?”

Thumbnail

Figure 4
: “Which of the following do you think has the most influence on your country?”

Thumbnail

Table 1
: Matrix of programmatic and relational dimensions, applied to domestic and external public opinion, with examples of typical questions

Thumbnail

Table 2
: “In your opinion, which region of the world should Brazil pay more attention to?” (%)

Thumbnail

Table 3
: “Who is the greatest threat to Turkey’s security?” (ranking, USAK and KHU)

Thumbnail

Table 4
: Favorable views of Turkey in MENA countries (%, 2009-2013)

Thumbnail

Table 5
: Views on Turkey’s regional role (%, regional averages, 2009-2013)

Thumbnail

Table 6
: “Do you believe these countries had a positive impact on the Arab Spring?” (regional average %, 2011-2013)

Thumbnail

Table 7
: South Africa’s priority partnerships (%)

Thumbnail

Table 8
: Perceptions of influential countries in South Africa (%, Afrobarometer 2008, 2016)

Thumbnail

Table 9
: Summary of the main trends in (a) domestic and (b) external public opinion on the (i) programmatic and (ii) relational dimensions

Thumbnail

SOUTH AFRICA and AFRICA Reference Type Scope Period Obs Nel (1999) Article South Africa Jun 1997 - Mar 1998 Levels: elite and mass Westhuizen and Smith (2015) Article South Africa 2013 Level: mass HRSC Policy briefs South Africa 2015, 2017 Level: mass Afrobarometer Data base 12-36 countries 7 waves since 1999 Waves 4 and 6 contain more specific questions about IR BRAZIL and LATIN AMERICA Reference Type Scope Period Obs “A Agenda Internacional do Brasil: um Estudo sobre a Comunidade Brasileira de Política Externa”; “A Agenda Internacional do Brasil: a Política Externa de FHC a Lula” ( Souza, 2001 , 2008) Books Brazil 2001, 2007 Level: elite The Americas and the World Data base Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay Variable, according to country. Typically, 2010 onwards. Level: mass and, for some countries, elites Latinobarómetro Data base 19 Latin American countries, plus Spain 1995-2020 Level: mass Proyecto Elites Latinoamericanas Data base 18 Latin American countries Variable, according to country. Typically, 1995 - late 2010s Level: elites (members of congress). Some items on foreign policy and evaluation of foreign leaders. Brazilian Legislative Survey (Power; Zucco, 2014) Data base Brazil (Members of Congress) 1990-2017 The BLS consists of a wave of 8 surveys conducted with members of congress. Every legislature since redemocratization was interviewed: 1990, 1993, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2013, and 2017. Questions on foreign policy were only introduced starting in 2009.

Thumbnail

TURKEY and the MENA Reference Type Scope Period Obs Arab Barometer Data base 14 countries 2007-2021 Level: mass. Turkey not surveyed, but there are occasional items on its foreign policy. USAK Books Turkey 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009 Level: mass GMF Survey report Several 2003 on (Transatlantic Trends), 2015 (Turkish Perceptions) Level: mass KHU Survey report Turkey 2013, 2015-2019 Level: mass TESEV Survey report Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Tunisia, Gulf countries, Yemen, Libya 2009-2013 Level: mass “The World Through Arab Eyes” ( Telhami, 2013 ) Book Mainly Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, UAE (for some items USA, Israel, and Palestine) 2003-2006, 2008-2012 Level: mass “The Tumultuous Decade: Arab Public Opinion and the Upheavals of 2010-2019” ( Zogby, 2019 ) Book Arab countries, for some items Turkey and Iran 2010-2018 Level: mass

Level/Dimension	(i) Programmatic	(ii) Relational
(a) Domestic	"How do you evaluate your country's foreign policy?"	"With which countries should your country deepen relations?"
(b) External (regional neighbors)	"How do you evaluate the foreign policy of South Africa/Brazil/Turkey?"	"Should your country deepen relations with South Africa/Brazil/Turkey?"

	2010	2014	2019
North America	11.8	9.6	17.1
Latin America	24	15.9	18.7
Europe	11.4	13	11
Asia	9.8	6.9	6.1
Middle East	11.3	8.6	5.8
Africa	10.3	24.3	18.1
Oceania	1.7	1.2	5.5

Ranking	2004	2005	2009	2013	2015	2016	2017	2018
1	US	US	US	US	Israel	US	US	US
2	Greece	Israel	Israel	Israel	US	Russia	Israel	Israel
3	Armenia	France	France	Syria	Syria	Syria	EU	EU
4	Israel	Greece	Armenia	Iran	Armenia	Israel	Russia	Syria
5	UK	UK	Greece	Iraq	Iran	EU	Armenia	Armenia

Country/Year	2009	2010***	2011	2012	2013
Egypt	72		86	84	38
Jordan	82		81	72	71
Lebanon	76		78	63	63
Palestine	87		89	81	75
Saudi Arabia	77		89	77	76
Syria	87		44	28	22
Iraq	69		74	55	67
Iran*			71	59	69
Tunisia**			91	80	74
Gulf Countries**			76	77	65
Yemen**			79	74	76
Libya**			93	90	79
Regional Weighted Average	75	85	78	69	59

Question/Year	2009*	2010	2011	2012	2013
Should Turkey play a greater role in the region?	77	78	71	66	60
Can Turkey be a model for the MENA countries?	61	66	61	53	51

Country/Year	2011	2012	2013
Turkey	56	42	37
Saudi Arabia	-	45	47
Qatar	-	45	39
USA	35	30	24
China	31	29	38
Russia	30	29	38

	Nel (1999)Nel, P. “The foreign policy beliefs of South Africans: A first cut“. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, vol. 17, n° 1, p. 123-146, 1999. “First priority in foreign policy focus”	Westhuizen and Smith (2015)Westhuizen, J.; Smith, K. “Pragmatic internationalism: public opinion on South Africa’s role in the world“. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, vol. 33, n° 3, p. 318-347, 2015. “With which country or group of countries in the list should South Africa be seen to be an ally or close friend?”
Southern Africa	21	13
North America / USA*	21	19
Europe (Western + Eastern) / Europe*	19	15
Rest of Africa	16	16
Asia / China*	6	26

	Round 4 (2008)	Round 6 (2016)
	“How much do each of the following do to help your country”	“Which of the following do you think has the most influence ?”	“Which of the following countries, if any, would be the best model for the future development of our country?”
USA	No help (16) Help a little + somewhat + a lot (42)	28	37
EU	No help (19) Help a little + somewhat + a lot (34)	Not an option	Not an option
UK	No help (18) Help a little + somewhat + a lot (37)	7	12
China	No help (17) Help a little + somewhat + a lot (41)	41	26

Level/Dimension	(i) Programmatic	(ii) Relational
(a) Domestic	Brazil - Support for an active foreign policy rather than isolationism, but loss of enthusiasm and a declining perception of prestige. Turkey - Strong isolationism, although it was abated during the more assertive period. South Africa - Perception of regional leadership. Pragmatism trumps principled positions.	Brazil - Support for greater attention to new destinations, such as Africa. Turkey - Rejection of EU on some items in favor of the MENA, though the gap between destinations oscillates. In recent years, focus on Central Asian partners, such as Azerbaijan. - Perception of allies and threats partially altered by developments in the Syrian War. South Africa - Reversal of geographic focus from Southern Africa to Asia/China.
(b) External (regional neighbors)	Brazil (Specific policies not evaluated by neighbors) Turkey - Negative perceptions among Arab countries early in the series. Rise in popularity under Erdogan (condemnation of Israel and start of Arab Spring). After peak in 2011–2012, steep decline. Assessment remains positive on the specific issue of management of the Syrian conflict. South Africa (Specific policies not evaluated by neighbors)	Brazil - Brazilian leadership perception is geographically concentrated in South America and mainly Mercosur. Absence of competitors (e.g.: Venezuela) favors the perception of leadership. Turkey - More negative views at the end of the series tended to cluster on Egypt and Gulf monarchies. South Africa - Perceptions of South African support and influence are geographically concentrated in Southern Africa.

SOUTH AFRICA and AFRICA
Reference	Type	Scope	Period	Obs
Nel (1999)Nel, P. “The foreign policy beliefs of South Africans: A first cut“. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, vol. 17, n° 1, p. 123-146, 1999.	Article	South Africa	Jun 1997 - Mar 1998	Levels: elite and mass
Westhuizen and Smith (2015)Westhuizen, J.; Smith, K. “Pragmatic internationalism: public opinion on South Africa’s role in the world“. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, vol. 33, n° 3, p. 318-347, 2015.	Article	South Africa	2013	Level: mass
HRSC	Policy briefs	South Africa	2015, 2017	Level: mass
Afrobarometer	Data base	12-36 countries	7 waves since 1999	Waves 4 and 6 contain more specific questions about IR
BRAZIL and LATIN AMERICA
Reference	Type	Scope	Period	Obs
“A Agenda Internacional do Brasil: um Estudo sobre a Comunidade Brasileira de Política Externa”; “A Agenda Internacional do Brasil: a Política Externa de FHC a Lula” ( Souza, 2001Souza, A. A agenda internacional do Brasil: um estudo sobre a comunidade de política externa brasileira. Rio de Janeiro: CEBRI, 2001. , 2008)	Books	Brazil	2001, 2007	Level: elite
The Americas and the World	Data base	Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay	Variable, according to country. Typically, 2010 onwards.	Level: mass and, for some countries, elites
Latinobarómetro	Data base	19 Latin American countries, plus Spain	1995-2020	Level: mass
Proyecto Elites Latinoamericanas	Data base	18 Latin American countries	Variable, according to country. Typically, 1995 - late 2010s	Level: elites (members of congress). Some items on foreign policy and evaluation of foreign leaders.
Brazilian Legislative Survey (Power; Zucco, 2014)	Data base	Brazil (Members of Congress)	1990-2017	The BLS consists of a wave of 8 surveys conducted with members of congress. Every legislature since redemocratization was interviewed: 1990, 1993, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2013, and 2017. Questions on foreign policy were only introduced starting in 2009.

TURKEY and the MENA
Reference	Type	Scope	Period	Obs
Arab Barometer	Data base	14 countries	2007-2021	Level: mass. Turkey not surveyed, but there are occasional items on its foreign policy.
USAK	Books	Turkey	2004, 2005, 2006, 2009	Level: mass
GMF	Survey report	Several	2003 on (Transatlantic Trends), 2015 (Turkish Perceptions)	Level: mass
KHU	Survey report	Turkey	2013, 2015-2019	Level: mass
TESEV	Survey report	Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Tunisia, Gulf countries, Yemen, Libya	2009-2013	Level: mass
“The World Through Arab Eyes” ( Telhami, 2013Telhami, S. The world through Arab eyes: Arab public opinion and the reshaping of the Middle East. New York: Basic Books, 2013. )	Book	Mainly Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, UAE (for some items USA, Israel, and Palestine)	2003-2006, 2008-2012	Level: mass
“The Tumultuous Decade: Arab Public Opinion and the Upheavals of 2010-2019” ( Zogby, 2019Zogby, J. The tumultuous decade: Arab Public Opinion and the upheavals of 2010-2019. Longmont: Steuben Press, 2019. )	Book	Arab countries, for some items Turkey and Iran	2010-2018	Level: mass

Brasil

Brasil

Opinión pública y potencias emergentes: percepciones de las diplomacias asertivas de Sudáfrica, Brasil y Turquía en encuestas nacionales y regionales

Resumen