Prediction of the natural distribution, habitat and conservation of Stryphnodendron pulcherrimum (Willd.) Hochr. in response to global climate change

Predição da distribuição natural, habitat e conservação de Stryphnodendron pulcherrimum (Willd.) Hochr. frente às mudanças climáticas globais

ABSTRACT

Stryphnodendron pulcherrimum is a species used medicinally among traditional Amazonian communities for its bactericidal activity and anti-inflammatory properties. Despite being adapted to rustic environments, there is no information regarding how climate change might affect the species occurrence. The present study aimed to evaluate the natural distribution of S. pulcherrimum in the current period and how its potential geographic distribution may be affected in response to future climate change scenarios in Brazilian phytogeographic domains. A total of 19 bioclimatic variables were used from the WorldClim database. Four algorithm models (Climate Space Model, Envelope Score, Niche Mosaic and Environmental Distance - present) and one software (Open Modeller - future) were used to verify the potential occurrence of S. pulcherrimum in five Brazilian domains (Amazon, Cerrado, Caatinga, Atlantic Forest and Pantanal) and three intervals (2009-2019 - present; 2020-2050 and 2051-2070 - future). There were losses of areas favorable to the occurrence of S. pulcherrimum in the Amazon, Cerrado and Pantanal, and global climate change may affect its natural distribution especially in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon. In the Amazon, the species may be totally extinct, in the worst scenario, by 2070.

KEYWORDS
Medicinal plant; distribution of plant species; ecological niche modeling