We contend the thesis that, in the current phase of maturity of the epidemiological field, a reevaluation of the risk concept is timely needed. Initially, we discuss the foundations of categories of causality and contingency in the work of two philosophers, Aristotle and Pascal. Secondly, recovering previous reflections on logical bases of the concept of risk, we critically discuss its explanatory adequacy and efficacy for the health-disease object. Thirdly, we briefly present ground categories and concepts of the complexity paradigm, capable of tackling phenomena of emergency, non-linearity and fuzziness related to new, mutant, complex health objects. We conclude with a few remarks and thoughts yet preliminary on foundations, perspectives and consequences of applying the modality of "contingency" as alternative to notions of determination in the health field, in order to envision the future of the concept of risk far beyond the thematic area (scientific and technological) of contemporary Epidemiology.
Risk; causality; contingency; complexity; Aristotle
