DECOMMISSIONING OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION SYSTEMS WITH SMAA-ExpTODIM

ABSTRACT

This study addresses the application of the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) technique, in combination with the Exponential TODIM method (ExpTODIM), by taking into consideration proposition made by Petrobras to the Brazilian National Agency for Petroleum, regarding the decommissioning of both Marlim and Voador production fields. The new approach called SMAA-ExpTODIM takes into consideration different perspectives of participants involved in decision making regarding decommissioning projects and incorporates them to its results. Besides incorporating decision makers’ uncertainties and ignorance zones, this new approach explicitly considers the decision making based on the different perspectives of the Proponent and of the Regulator. The application of the SMAA-ExpTODIM approach increased robustness by adopting different probability functions for stochastic variables, for the process of formulating and modeling the decommissioning issue. This was undertaken to represent profiles associated with aversion or propensity to risks faced by institutional decision makers. For each decision maker profile, different preference structures or comfort levels are created with a choice between decision alternatives.

Keywords:
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis; SMAA; ExpTODIM; decommissioning; Oil & Gas