DENGUE OUTBREAK EARLY IDENTIFICATION BY RAIN AND HUMAN CASES EVOLUTION IN FORTALEZA/CE

ABSTRACT

This article presents an analytical evaluation of the behavior of dengue in the city of Fortaleza/CE, throughout all the epidemiological weeks of years 2007 to 2021, considering only the influence of rainfall on the increase of dengue in the municipality. The high correlation between the two events is shown through graphs of the global percentages over time and cross correlation, which imply the emergence of dengue outbreaks from the 13^th epidemiological week for two consecutive years (2012 and 2013), taken as an example of investigation. In addition, the study shows that the amounts of rain falling between the 5^th and 9^th epidemiological weeks indicate the beginning of dengue outbreaks with greater or lesser intensity. We confirm cross correlation using Ljung-Box and Shapiro-Wilk statistical tests between rain and dengue SARIMA curves we found for the period, meaning that the rain explains Dengue human cases up to four weeks before they happen, applying SARIMA models to both events. Finally, we also show, by using instantaneous increase measures along epidemiological accumulated weeks from years 2007-2019, the outbreak identification, to better indicate to health managers its presence.

Keywords:
analytical prediction; dengue control; cross correlation