A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO AIRCRAFT CARGO LAUNCHING TO SUPPORT HUMANITARY AID OPERATIONS

ABSTRACT

Natural disasters often affect communities that become unable to access vital items. Not infrequently, the profile and scale of disasters require the delivery of various types of material and vital items, gaining prominence in these contexts the launching cargo by aircraft. This study presents a mathematical ballistic launch model that incorporates the main random variables that influence the trajectory of the load, making it possible to conduct analyses to improve the accuracy of launchings. In this way, Monte Carlo Simulations were utilized to investigate the trajectory deviations as a function of certain combinations of controlled factors in the model. Based on these findings, a Response Surface method was implemented, enabling the development of flight profiles that minimize load deviations from a desired impact point on the ground.

Keywords:
mathematical ballistic launch model; Monte Carlo simulation; response surface method