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Processo de tomada de decisão sob incerteza em investimentos internacionais na exploração & produção offshore de petróleo: uma abordagem multicritério

This paper presents the theoretical developments in techniques of decision-making analysis in petroleum exploration and production projects, from economic evaluation using Discount Cash Flow (DCF) up to and including a presentation of the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), which enables consideration of typical risks and uncertainties in international petroleum upstream investments in a new competitive situation among firms. Finally, a case study of the MAUT was developed and applied to define priorities among ten offshore exploration opportunities around the world offered to a fictitious Brazilian petroleum multinational company, according to decision-makers' preferences regarding operational, political and technological issues.

petroleum exploration & production; multiattribute utility theory; investments under uncertainties


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