ABSTRACT
This paper proposes a multicriteria model for ranking the functioning of the dominant economic sectors of the Mexican economy. The paper presents a real case study dealing with comparing economic sectors. It includes the problem situation, a suitable problem formulation, and a detailed version of the multicriteria evaluation model. The model considers the multiple dimensions involved in the evaluation. Eighty-nine dominant economic sectors of Mexico represent the alternatives to be considered in the evaluation model. The problem statement is a relative economic comparison of such sectors under a multicriteria ranking purpose from the 2019 Economic Census data. The study found that the model could determine the degree of the overall appeal of an economic sector in contrast to others.
KEYWORDS:
multicriteria decision analysis; economic sectors; multiobjective evolutionary algorithms
1 INTRODUCTION
Planning economic development in developing countries is a fundamental task. Countries should adequately promote the various economic sectors and contribute to solving social and economic problems. However, the pace of progress is often controlled by the available resources, which means that not all sectors can be equally stimulated. Therefore, a correct development scheme to support the competent sectors is essential to achieve the projected development goals (Sudaryanto, 2003SUDARYANT O. 2003. A fuzzy multi-attribute decision making approach for the identification of the key sectors of an economy: the case of Indonesia. Phd thesis. Available at: https://publications.rwth-aachen.de/record/58759.
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).
The transfer of capital within and outside a country’s economy involves important elements such as internal sectors that produce and consume output, households, governments that utilize output, and foreign entities that import and export goods and services. The Input-Output (I-O) matrix is associated with the intermediate sectors of an economy and the output segments that other sectors consume as input. A fundamental component of an I-O model is a matrix that displays resource flows between sectors over a specific duration (Leontief, 1986LEONTIEF W. 1986. Input-output economics. Oxford University Press.). I-O matrices depict how an economy is structured and the interrelated connections between its sectors.
Mexican investors and policymakers must consider the global economic environment (Leyva et al., 2016LEYVA LÓPEZ J, GASTÉLUM CHAVIRA D & URIAS RUIZ M. 2016. A comparative approach of economic sectors in Sinaloa, Mexico, based on multicriteria decision aiding. EconoQuantum, 13(1): 97-124.). The Mexican economy is the fifteenth in the world and the second in Latin America (World Bank, 2022WORLD BANK. 2022-02-25. Población activa, total - Mexico. Available at: https://datos.bancomundial.org/indicator/sl.tlf.totl.in?end=2021&locations=mx&start=1960&view=chart.
https://datos.bancomundial.org/indicator...
). Mexico ranks eleventh among the countries with the largest population on earth, with 126.7 million inhabitants (INEGI, 2023INEGI. 2023. Censos Económicos 2019. https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ce/2019/.
https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ce/20...
). In addition, economic growth is supported by its trade openness, a solid manufacturing export base connected to global value chains integrated with the United States, and a stable macroeconomic framework (World Bank, 2022WORLD BANK. 2022-02-25. Población activa, total - Mexico. Available at: https://datos.bancomundial.org/indicator/sl.tlf.totl.in?end=2021&locations=mx&start=1960&view=chart.
https://datos.bancomundial.org/indicator...
).
According to Augusto et al. (2005AUGUSTO M, FIGUEIRA J, LISBOA J & YASIN M. 2005. An application of a multicriteria approach to assessing the performance of Portugal’s economic sectors: Methodology, analysis and implications. European Business Review, 17(2): 113-132.), different methodological approaches can be used to evaluate the performance of economic sectors. For example, a multidimensional statistical approach has been attempted to identify the factors that affect various economic sectors in a city and determine the extent of their impact (Wolin, 2000WOLIN M. 2000. Review 200: Members of the jury. Far Eastern Economic Review, 163(52): 92.).
Input-output analysis has some significant limitations when analyzing the sectors of a country’s economy. These include focusing on economic transactions and production processes, neglecting important factors like employment and capital formation. The traditional methods may not easily accommodate diverse evaluation metrics or changing priorities and overlook qualitative aspects, potentially excluding broader stakeholder input. Additionally, input-output analysis can be less adaptable to exploring alternative scenarios or providing a ranking mechanism for sector prioritization.
On the contrary, Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) (Figueira et al., 2013FIGUEIRA J, GRECO S, ROY B & SŁOWINSKI R. 2013. An overview of ELECTRE methods and their recent extensions. Journal of Multicriteria Decision Analysis, 20(1-2): 61-85.) provides some benefits for examining a country’s economic sectors. It allows for the simultaneous evaluation of economic sectors based on multiple criteria, offering a comprehensive analysis. MCDA is flexible and can integrate various criteria tailored to specific objectives or stakeholder preferences. It enables the assignment of weights to different criteria based on their relative importance, reflecting stakeholder priorities and policy objectives. Additionally, MCDA integrates qualitative and quantitative data, encourages stakeholder participation in the decision-making process, and provides clear rankings of economic sectors based on their overall performance across multiple criteria, aiding in prioritization and policymaking.
MCDA is a broad classification of methods that permits alternatives to be assessed according to different, often contradictory, and incommensurable criteria. Therefore, MCDA is appropriate for this application, where the sectors operate as decision alternatives. The variables under the study of the 2019 economic census of Mexico act as criteria for evaluating alternatives.
MCDA techniques have been widely employed to tackle various decision-making challenges encountered in areas such as finance, education, transportation, services, water management, environmental issues, and more (Figueira et al., 2013FIGUEIRA J, GRECO S, ROY B & SŁOWINSKI R. 2013. An overview of ELECTRE methods and their recent extensions. Journal of Multicriteria Decision Analysis, 20(1-2): 61-85.; Govindan & Jepsen, 2016GOVINDAN K & JEPSEN M. 2016. ELECTRE: A comprehensive literature review on methodologies and applications. European Journal of Operational Research, 250(1): 1-29.). In the past few years, MCDA methods have been employed to evaluate significant economic sectors, influencing decision-making and problem-solving processes. Nevertheless, such uses are still reduced in number and extent. Augusto et al. (2005AUGUSTO M, FIGUEIRA J, LISBOA J & YASIN M. 2005. An application of a multicriteria approach to assessing the performance of Portugal’s economic sectors: Methodology, analysis and implications. European Business Review, 17(2): 113-132.), Balezentis et al. (2012BALEZENTIS A, BALEZENTIS T & MISIUNAS A. 2012. An integrated assessment of Lithuanian economic sectors based on financial ratios and fuzzy MCDM methods. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 18(1): 34-53.), and Sudaryanto (2003SUDARYANT O. 2003. A fuzzy multi-attribute decision making approach for the identification of the key sectors of an economy: the case of Indonesia. Phd thesis. Available at: https://publications.rwth-aachen.de/record/58759.
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) applied a multicriteria method to evaluate the performance of economic sectors in Portugal, Lithuania, and Indonesia, respectively. Díaz et al. (2006DIAZ B, MONICHE L & MORILLAS A. 2006. A fuzzy clustering approach to the key sectors of the Spanish economy. Economic Systems Research, 18(3): 299-318.) demonstrated a clustering methodology to identify the economic sectors of Spain.
MCDA has been used to measure the performance of economic sectors, sometimes in combination with the input-output approach. Most notably, Kananen et al. (1990KANANEN I, KORHONEN P, WALLENIUS J & WALLENIUS H. 1990. Multiple objective analysis of input-output models for emergency management. Operations Research, 38(2): 193-201.) evaluated the response to economic and political shocks propagating through the input-output structure of the Finnish economy regarding emergency management techniques. Also, Shmelev & Brook (2021SHMELEV S & BROOK H. 2021. Macro sustainability across countries: Key sector environmentally extended input-output analysis. Sustainability, 13(21): 11657.) described a comparative sustainability evaluation procedure using environmentally extended input-output and MCDA. The product used symmetric input-output matrices, sectoral CO2 emissions, and computed linkage coefficients for 163 sectors in six countries.
The authors Luptácik & Böhm (1994LUPTÁCIK M & BÖHM B. 1994. An environmental input-output model with multiple criteria. Annals of Operations Research, 54: 119-127.) used a multiobjective model to minimize factor costs of producing Gross National Product. In Shmelev & Rodriguez-Labajos (2009SHMELEV S & RODRIGUEZ-LABAJOS B. 2009. Dynamic multidimensional assessment of sustainability at the macro level: The case of Austria. Ecological Economics, 68(10): 2560-2573.), a work that assessed intertemporal macro sustainability in Austria over 25 years is described, while the United Nations Sustainability Development Framework of Indicators was used to evaluate macro sustainability progress over time in Russia by implementing MCDA methods in Shmelev (2011SHMELEV S. 2011. Dynamic sustainability assessment: the case of Russia in the period of transition (1985-2008). Ecological Economics, 70(11): 2039-2049.). The economic condition in Indonesia during the COVID-19 Pandemic was analyzed by applying teaching learning-based Fuzzy Geodemographic Clustering by Nasution & Siregar (2022NASUTION B & SIREGAR S. 2022. Regional Economy Condition in Indonesia during COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis using Teaching Learning-Based Fuzzy Geodemographic Clustering. In: 1st International Conference on Information System & Information Technology (ICISIT). p. 37-42.). A tool for making decisions in tourism and recreational engineering was created by Vladykina & Kazanskaya (2016VLADYKINA J & KAZANSKAYA O. 2016. Information model of decision-making in management regional tourism. In: 2016 11th International Forum on Strategic Technology (IFOST). p. 499-501.) to automate data processing. Its purpose is to identify problem areas and potential areas for growth in a specific location.
A well-known decision-aiding method under the MCDA approach is the ELECTRE (ELimination Et Choice Translating REality) method. This family of methods is an alternative to the functional paradigm, which can handle ordinal and qualitative information and threshold effects without involving the constant tradeoff rate. ELECTRE methods can choose the best alternative, rank alternatives, or categorize them into pre-defined and ordered categories. Several traditional ELECTRE methods have been developed to handle incomplete knowledge using discriminatory thresholds achieved through pseudo-criteria.
The ELECTRE III method is part of the ELECTRE family. This method and the other ELECTRE methods build an outranking relation S using the concordance and non-discordance tests.
The ELECTRE III method can handle imperfect knowledge arising from uncertain, imprecise, and poorly defined criteria in real-world decision-making situations in a non-compensatory form. The method uses indifference and preference thresholds that act as technical discrimination thresholds, comparing alternatives based on each criterion to address this. The method also considers the possibility of veto power for discordant criteria against the hypothesis that the outranking relation is valid. The weights assigned to each criterion in ELECTRE III are thought coefficients of relative importance and can be considered votes for each criterion. The weights and thresholds are used to calculate the Concordance index. This index aims to measure the reliability of the outranking relation for a finite set of alternatives.
These methods have been expanded to include interactive criteria in Figueira et al. (2009FIGUEIRA J, GRECO S & ROY B. 2009. ELECTRE methods with interaction between criteria: An extension of the concordance index. European Journal of Operational Research, 199(2): 478-495.), hierarchical criteria structures in Corrente et al. (2013CORRENTE S, GRECO S & SŁOWINSKI R. 2013. Multiple Criteria Hierarchy Process with ELECTRE and PROMETHEE. Omega (United Kingdom), 41(5): 820-846.), and hierarchical evaluations of performance based on interactive criteria in Corrente et al. (2017CORRENTE S, FIGUEIRA J, GRECO S & SŁOWINSKI R. 2017. A robust ranking method extending ELECTRE III to hierarchy of interacting criteria, imprecise weights and stochastic analysis. Omega (United Kingdom), 73: 1-17.). Leyva et al. (2022LEYVA LÓPEZ J, SOLARES E & FIGUEIRA J. 2022. An evolutionary approach for inferring the model parameters of the hierarchical ELECTRE III method. Information Sciences, 607: 705-726.) presented an evolutionary approach that fully operationalizes the hierarchical ELECTRE III method. Leyva et al. (2023LEYVA J, FLORES S, SOLARES E, LEÓN M, DÍAZ R & FLORES A. 2023. Multicriteria decision model to support the evaluation of common jurisdiction violence in the capital cities of the states of Mexico. IEEE Access, 11: 38753-38769.) also exploited a hierarchical version of the ELECTRE III method but in the context of public security in the capital cities of the Mexican Republic’s states.
This paper aims to apply the ELECTRE III method (Roy, 1996ROY B. 1996. Multicriteria Methodology for Decision Aiding. Kluwer Academic Publishers.) for the comparative assessment of the dominant economic sectors of the Mexican economy, that is, to group them according to their level of attractiveness using the variables under the study of the 2019 economic census of Mexico (INEGI, 2023INEGI. 2023. Censos Económicos 2019. https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ce/2019/.
https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ce/20...
). Furthermore, RP2-NSGA II+H (Leyva et al., 2021LEYVA LÓPEZ J, NORIEGA J, FIGUEIRA J, LIU J & CHAVIRA D. 2021a. Non-dominated sorting genetic-based algorithm for exploiting a large-sized fuzzy outranking relation. European Journal of Operational Research, 293(2): 615-631.), a heuristic based on multiobjective genetic algorithms, exploits the fuzzy outranking relation constructed with ELECTRE III to derive a solution to the ranking problem of the sectors of the Mexican economy.
The rest of the document is organized as follows. The second section presents material and methods, incorporating the procedure for ranking the dominant Mexican economic sectors. The third section explains the study and emphasizes the process and approach used. Also, a sensitivity analysis of the proposed recommendation using the multicriteria method is presented. Section four presents the results and discusses them. The last section shows concluding comments.
2 MATERIALS AND METHODS
In this section, we will use the ELECTRE III method, a procedure created by Roy (1990ROY B. 1990. The outranking approach and the foundations of ELECTRE methods. In: Readings in Multiple Criteria Decision Aid. p. 155-183. Springer.) to solve multicriteria ranking problems and develop multicriteria decision models. We will also apply the RP2-NSGA II+H algorithm, a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm, to derive a ranking utilizing a fuzzy outranking relation.
The straightforward implementation of the ELECTRE III method is effective for a few alternatives. However, its performance degrades rapidly as the number of alternatives increases. This is mainly because the distillation ranking procedure of ELECTRE III lacks an effective mechanism to detect groups of preferentially indifferent alternatives or to minimize the pairwise rank reversal effect (Mareschal et al., 2008MARESCHAL B, SMET Y & NEMERY P. 2008. Rank reversal in the PROMETHEE II method: Some new results. In: 2008 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management. p. 959-963.). Contrasting with the distillation procedure of the ELECTRE III method, the RP2-NSGA II+H algorithm, a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm, offers significant advantages. It exploits a fuzzy outranking relation to enhance the ranking of a large set of alternatives, mainly when there are implicitly subsets of preferentially indifferent alternatives to each other. The primary goal of this method is to recommend a partial order of classes of alternatives that aligns most closely with the aggregation model of the preferences of the decision maker (DM).
The ELECTRE III method and the RP2-NSGA II+H algorithm are integrated into the SADGAGE software (Leyva et al., 2017LÓPEZ JL, ÁLVAREZ CARRILLO P, GASTELUM CHAVIRA A & SOLANO NORIEGA J. 2017. A web-based group decision support system for multicriteria ranking problems. Operational Research: An International Journal, 17(2): 499-534.), a web-based multicriteria decision support system designed to facilitate ranking a set of alternatives with evaluations in terms of several criteria in decreasing order of preferences.
2.1 The ELECTRE III method
The ELECTRE III method is an essential method of MCDA. It is based on a pairwise comparison of the alternatives to fuzzy preference degrees (Roy, 1996ROY B. 1996. Multicriteria Methodology for Decision Aiding. Kluwer Academic Publishers.). ELECTRE III includes realistic decision-making parameters for different criteria scores, precisely indifference, preference, and veto thresholds (Costa et al., 2022COSTA IA, TERRA A, MOREIRA M, PEREIRA M, FÁVERO L, SANTOS M & GOMES C. 2022. A Systematic Approach to the Management of Military Human Resources through the ELECTRE-MOr Multicriteria Method. Algorithms, 15(11): 422.; de Araújo Costa et al., 2021ARAÚJO COSTA I, SANSEVERINO A, SANTOS BARCELOS M, BELDERRAIN M, GOMES C & SANTOS M. 2021. Choosing flying hospitals in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic: structuring and modeling a complex problem using the VFT and ELECTRE-MOr methods. IEEE Latin America Transactions, 19(6): 1099-1106.; Figueira et al., 2013FIGUEIRA J, GRECO S, ROY B & SŁOWINSKI R. 2013. An overview of ELECTRE methods and their recent extensions. Journal of Multicriteria Decision Analysis, 20(1-2): 61-85.).
We briefly present the core of the ELECTRE III method. Let A={a 1, a 2, ..., a m } be the set of actions or alternatives and suppose there are stated criteria g k , k=1, 2, ..., r. For each pair (a i , a j )∈A×A, we can calculate a concordance measure C(a i , a j ) and a discordance measure d k (a i , a j ). C(a i , a j ) measures the degree to which we agree with the statement that a i is at least as good as a j , while d k (a i , a j ) measures the discordance related to this statement. The aggregation model of preferences joins these two indices to measure the degree of outranking, that is, a credibility index σ(a i , a j ), (0≤σ (a i , a j )≤1) that evaluates the intensity of the assertion that “a i is at least as good as a j , a i Sa j ”.The credibility degree for each pair (a i , a j )∈A×A is expressed as follows:
where K(a i , a j ) is the set of criteria such that d k (a i , a j )>C(a i , a j ).
Hence, the first stage of the ELECTRE III method constructs a fuzzy outranking relation defined on A×A; this means that the method links with each ordered pair (a i , a j )∈A×A a real number σ(a i , a j ), (0≤σ(a i , a j )≤1) that indicates the degree of strength of the arguments favoring the crisp outranking a i Sa j .
The exploitation of is carried out in the second phase of ELECTRE III to derive a ranking of the alternatives. We use the multiobjective evolutionary algorithm RP2-NSGA II+H of Leyva et al. (2021LEYVA LÓPEZ J, NORIEGA J, FIGUEIRA J, LIU J & CHAVIRA D. 2021a. Non-dominated sorting genetic-based algorithm for exploiting a large-sized fuzzy outranking relation. European Journal of Operational Research, 293(2): 615-631.) to exploit a fuzzy outranking relation and to derive a partial pre-order of alternatives.
2.2 The Multiobjective problem and the multiobjective evolutionary algorithm
For the multicriteria ranking problem, each potential solution in the multiobjective evolutionary algorithm ranks the set of alternatives (dominant economic sectors in our application problem). To make the most of a fuzzy outranking relation and establish a ranking of alternatives that closely align with the preferences of the decision maker represented by , we approach it as a multiobjective optimization problem, identifying three objective functions as follows:
2.2.1 Objective functions
2.2.1.1 Maximum Cut Level Objective
Each potential solution relates to a λ-cut, linked with a credibility level of a crisp outranking relation defined on a set of alternatives A. It is appropriate to have potential solutions with a credibility level λ close to 1. This denotes that the ranking obtained from the decoded potential is more credible. This objective is referred to as the Maximum Cut Level objective.
The multiobjective problem model includes an additional constraint for the credibility level λ. This constraint is based on a function f which prevents λ values from being close to one because it increases the number of incomparabilities between the alternatives. The quality of a solution improves as the value of f decreases. In this scenario, we are interested in individuals whose f values are close to zero or equal to zero. This condition enhances the comparability of the credibility index.
2.2.1.2 The MinCut objective
To maximize the number of indifferences within classes, the alternatives within a particular class must be as indifferent to each other as possible. This objective penalizes pairs of alternatives that are not indifferent within a class.
2.2.1.3 The Minimum Pairwise Disagreement objective
The quality of the final crisp out-ranking relation should be evaluated by considering the discrepancies and concordances between and . P K (A) represents a partition of the set of alternatives A.
To address this, a n V function counts the number of pairwise disagreements based on preferences. This function measures the number of disagreements between alternatives in terms of preferences. This is referred to as the Minimum Pairwise Disagreement objective.
2.2.2 The multiobjective optimization problem
Based on the defined objectives, the multiobjective optimization problem that the multiobjective evolutionary algorithm tries to solve is the next one:
where:
Ω is the set of antisymmetric crisp outranking relations of classes of alternatives of A.
is an antisymmetric crisp outranking relations of classes of A.
is the number of incomparabilities between pairs of alternatives (a, b) in the individual p, in the sense of the relation .
εf is an objective value.
λ0 is a minimum credibility level.
Usually, in this optimization task, there is no single best solution; instead, a set of solutions that form an optimal Pareto front is obtained. For more information, please review the study conducted by Leyva et al. (2021LEYVA LÓPEZ J, NORIEGA J, FIGUEIRA J, LIU J & CHAVIRA D. 2021a. Non-dominated sorting genetic-based algorithm for exploiting a large-sized fuzzy outranking relation. European Journal of Operational Research, 293(2): 615-631.).
Figure 1 schematically indicates the diagram of the ELECTRE-III-RP2-NSGA II+H methodology. The methodology is iterative and not sequential, i.e., the DM can revisit and repeat any step.
2.3 Structured procedure to select a subset of economic variables to use as decision criteria for the multicriteria ranking of the dominant Mexican economic sectors
To select a subset of economic variables to use as a consistent family of criteria for a multicriteria ranking of the economic sectors from the 2019 Mexican Economic Census, we follow this structured procedure:
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Step 1: Define the Objective and Scope: To rank dominant Mexican economic sectors based on their performance using a subset of key economic variables from the 2019 Mexican Economic Census.
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Step 2: Identify potential economic variables: From a universe of 21 economic general variables
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Step 3: Criteria Selection Methodology: Use a systematic approach to select the most relevant variables.
In this study, we use the methodology proposed by Bouyssou (1990BOUYSSOU D. 1990. Building Criteria: A Prerequisite for MCDA. In: BAN A & COSTA C (Eds.), Readings in Multiple Criteria Decision Aid. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-75935-2-4.
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) to construct a consistent family of criteria in the multicriteria decision analysis approach to solve a multicriteria ranking problem.
In the decision-making process, constructing a consistent family of criteria comes after an initial phase that defines the set of alternatives, the problem being studied, and the intervention strategy. In our study, we aimed to create a consistent family of criteria based on the perspectives of economic experts to identify the most impactful economic variables.
We aim for our family of criteria to have two important qualities:
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“Legibility” means it should contain a small number of criteria to serve as a basis for discussion, allowing the analyst to assess the necessary inter-criteria information for implementing an aggregation procedure.
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“Operationality” meaning the family of criteria should be considered a reliable basis for all involved parties’ continuation of the decision-aid study.
We also aim for the family of criteria to possess technical properties such as exhaustiveness, monotonicity, and minimality.
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Step 4: Finalize the Subset of Variables
Based on the criteria selection process, we find a manageable subset of variables that adequately represent the economic performance of sectors. The final subset includes:
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Number of employees
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Remunerations
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Total gross production
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Intermediate consumption
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Gross fixed capital formation
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Gross value added
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Total fixed assets
Conclusion
Following this structured procedure, we effectively choose a subset of economic variables, which we can use as decision criteria for the multicriteria ranking of the dominant economic sectors from the 2019 Mexican Economic Census. This approach ensures a thorough and objective comparison of sector performance.
3 THE CASE STUDY
This part of the document presents the pertinence of the proposed multicriteria ranking approach in a real case study: ranking the Mexican economy’s dominant sectors by their attraction level. The case study presented here addresses the problem as a multicriteria ranking problem using the economic indicators handled by INEGI (INEGI, 2023INEGI. 2023. Censos Económicos 2019. https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ce/2019/.
https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ce/20...
) as the evaluation criteria.
3.1 Research Framework
In this case study, we adopt the MCDA framework to rank the dominant sectors of the Mexican economy. Due to the difficulty involved in analyzing a medium-sized set of economic sectors, we follow the methodology presented in the second section, taking advantage of the rationality of the ELECTRE III method (Roy, 1996ROY B. 1996. Multicriteria Methodology for Decision Aiding. Kluwer Academic Publishers.) and the RP2-NSGA II+H algorithm (Leyva et al., 2021LEYVA LÓPEZ J, NORIEGA J, FIGUEIRA J, LIU J & CHAVIRA D. 2021a. Non-dominated sorting genetic-based algorithm for exploiting a large-sized fuzzy outranking relation. European Journal of Operational Research, 293(2): 615-631.) to resolve the multicriteria ranking problem.
In the suggested outranking approach, the complete preferences model is a system of preferences that can bring response elements to specific questions (Roy, 1990ROY B. 1990. The outranking approach and the foundations of ELECTRE methods. In: Readings in Multiple Criteria Decision Aid. p. 155-183. Springer.). In this study, an authority official acted as a stakeholder, and the study authors served as analysts.
3.2 Data Source
The data is part of the 2019 Mexican Economic Census (INEGI, 2023INEGI. 2023. Censos Económicos 2019. https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ce/2019/.
https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ce/20...
). The census aims to obtain fundamental statistical data about companies that manufacture goods, market merchandise, and provide services to create specific geographic, sectoral, and thematic economic indicators for Mexico. The census reports almost all the economic activities that take place in Mexico. The classification used for the census is the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) 2007.
The census provides geographically detailed data for over 950 activities classified under the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), enabling public economic policy planning and academic and market research activities. Table 1 reports the dominant economic sectors in Mexico (INEGI, 2023INEGI. 2023. Censos Económicos 2019. https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ce/2019/.
https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ce/20...
).
3.3 Decision Criteria
The criteria used in this study are part of the economic census as evaluation variables. They were carefully selected using the structured procedure of section 2.3 and defined to represent the various aspects of economic sector performance adequately; an approach that considered their multidimensional nature was required. All the criteria are oriented to maximize, as described in Table 2.
The performance matrix underscores the differences among the economic sectors based on the criteria in Table 3.
3.4 Computations with the ELECTRE III-RP2-NSGA II+H Methodology
The ELECTRE-III method is used here to evaluate the performance of the economic sectors in Mexico because it can be handled as a multicriteria ranking problem. The ELECTRE methods use indifference and preference thresholds to integrate the fuzzy nature of the decision-making procedure, a feature of the current problem. Furthermore, since balancing out a loss in one area with a gain in another may not be satisfactory for the decision maker, the non-compensatory characteristics of the ELECTRE III method are desirable in some situations (Figueira et al., 2005FIGUEIRA J, MOUSSEAU V & ROY B. 2005. ELECTRE methods. In: FIGUEIRA S & EHRGOTT M (Eds.), International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, vol. 78. p. 133-162. Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-23081-5-4.
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). In addition, the ELECTRE models allow for incomparability between alternatives. Finally, the selection of ELECTRE III was also caused by previous practical applications of the approach (see Govindan & Jepsen (2016GOVINDAN K & JEPSEN M. 2016. ELECTRE: A comprehensive literature review on methodologies and applications. European Journal of Operational Research, 250(1): 1-29.) for a catalog of successful applications of ELECTRE).
Threshold selection is closely concerned with whether a specific preference relation holds. In this case study, the criteria’s indifference and preference thresholds are presented in Table 4. The criteria weights were obtained using the deck of cards technique (Corrente et al., 2017CORRENTE S, FIGUEIRA J, GRECO S & SŁOWINSKI R. 2017. A robust ranking method extending ELECTRE III to hierarchy of interacting criteria, imprecise weights and stochastic analysis. Omega (United Kingdom), 73: 1-17.).
Calculations have been performed on the performance matrix (Table 3) and information about the DM’s preferences (Table 4) to build a valued outranking relation that represents the aggregation model of the DM’s preferences. For space reasons, we omit the presentation of this relation.
The next phase is to mathematically process the preference relation and derive a final partial order of classes of alternatives. Our means of exploitation involves using the multiobjective evolutionary algorithm RP2-NSGA II+H (Leyva et al., 2021LEYVA LÓPEZ J, SOLANO NORIEGA J, FIGUEIRA J, LIU J & GASTÉLUM CHAVIRA D. 2021b. Non-dominated sorting genetic-based algorithm for exploiting a large-sized fuzzy outranking relation. European Journal of Operational Research, 293(2): 615-631.).
Due to the stochastic nature of RP2-NSGA II+H, the solutions found from different algorithm runs may vary in quality. Because of this, the RP2-NSGA II+H algorithm was executed ten times, with the parameters set to include 5000 generations, 40 individuals in the population, a crossover probability of 0.9,and a range of lambda values [0.50,0.60]. The mutation probability is automatically derived from the mutation operator.
Table 5 presents the ten best solutions with the lowest number of inconsistencies in the restricted Pareto front found in all the runs. Since all the solutions on this front are mathematically equivalent, the DM’s preferences must be incorporated into the selection process to determine the final solution. Here, solution no. 1 was selected because it showed fewer inconsistencies.
Figure 2 presents the decoded representation of the partial order of classes associated with solution #1,along with a table indicating the determined belonging class for each alternative of the multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA), as a recommendation made by the analyst to the DM.
Left: Table specifying each economic sector’s class according to the MOEA and its label. Right: Decoded representation as a partial order of classes of alternatives of the associated individual of solution #1.
Economic sectors were grouped into forty-nine different ordered classes: C 1, C 2, ..., C 49. The attractiveness of economic sectors differs from one another when compared within classes, as can be observed in Fig. 2. For example, economic sectors in the “C 17”, “C 22”, “C 24”, “C 35”, “C 1 ” and “C 4” classes show lower levels of attractiveness compared to the higher-ranked classes: ‘C 18”, “C 25”, “C 36”, “C 26”, “C 14” and “C 37”. Economic sectors in the same class represent a similar level of attractiveness. A suitable granularity in the classes permits us to differentiate better the appropriate attractiveness level between two economic sectors, which is appreciated for many state and federal government economic policy agendas.
The results recommend that A 29: Accessories, electrical appliances, and electric power generation equipment manufacturing, A 39: Intermediation of trade to the wholesale, A 62: Radio and television, A 40: Trade to the retail grocery, food, drinks, ice, and tobacco, A 22: Chemistry industry, and A 66: Central Bank are the economic sectors best evaluated according to the economic information presented in the decision criteria. We can notice the RP2-NSGA-II+H’s facility to detect classes of alternatives indifferent to each other. The results could be used by an economic analyst, stakeholder, or specialist to gain an accurate understanding and realistic depiction of the relative level of attractiveness among Mexico’s economic sectors.
3.5 Sensitivity Analysis of the Recommendation
Usually, in MCDA, a sensibility analysis is required after the DM takes the recommendation proposed by the analyst. Sensitivity analysis allows one to analyze the effect of changing some given parameter values on the obtained results regarding the DM’s preferences.
When conducting sensitivity analysis, changes in the values of the criteria weights (w) for multiple criteria are considered simultaneously, as are changes in the values of the indifference and strict preference thresholds for one or more criteria. Tables A1 and A2, shown in Appendix 1 APPENDIX 1 Table A1 Effect of modifications in criteria weights and alterations in the values of the recommendation. Modifications of relative importance (weights) values (w) for two or more criteria at the same time. wIC =2.04 wR =1.89 wGVA =1.53 wTFA =2.40 wNE =1.17 wGBA =1.40 wIC =2.04 wTFA =2.43, w GFCF =0.46 wTFP =0.66 wR =1.74, w IC =2.24 Table A2 Effect of modifications in criteria thresholds and alterations in the values of the recommendation. Changes of values in the thresholds q and p for one, two, or three criteria simultaneously. qNE =8,800 qIC =5,150 pNE =18,300 pIC =12,200 qGVA =3,850 qTGP =6,850, q TFA =3,90 pGVA =8,150 pTGP =15,200, p TFA =9,10 qGFCF =205, q R =6,050, q IC =4,990 pGFCF =405, p R =12,050, p IC =11,990 , contain the findings of the sensitivity analysis (the original parameters are found in Table 4).
From the ten variations made in the sensitivity analysis, the resulting rankings retained most of the estimations presented in Figure 2 on the level of the relative attractiveness of the economic sectors in Mexico. Therefore, the sensitivity of the proposed result was judged irrelevant. However, based on the sensitivity analysis results of Tables A1 and A2, rankings slightly different from those presented in Figure 2 can be observed. In most instances, the rankings of economic sectors change within the categories, and, in some cases - less frequently - they move from one class to another immediately higher or lower.
Operatively, the decision support method ends with the performance of the sensitivity analysis. However, the DM is the actor who makes the final evaluation and declares which elements are consistent with their beliefs, such as accepting the final result and the consistency between the final result and their preferences.
4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
This paper describes the methodology and variables used in the survey to collect information to analyze the 2019 economic Mexican census (INEGI, 2023INEGI. 2023. Censos Económicos 2019. https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ce/2019/.
https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ce/20...
). It was interesting to comprehensively study the economic characteristics of the dominant economic sectors in Mexico because it can lead to the design of public policies that allow establishment actions for those economic sectors of interest that show a high or low economic lag. Therefore, we chose a representative set of economic indicators defined based on variables used in the 2019 economic census. Seven indicators in this work have the role of decision criteria. We evaluated the eighty-nine economic sectors on each of these criteria.
The SADGAGE software described in Leyva et al. (2017LÓPEZ JL, ÁLVAREZ CARRILLO P, GASTELUM CHAVIRA A & SOLANO NORIEGA J. 2017. A web-based group decision support system for multicriteria ranking problems. Operational Research: An International Journal, 17(2): 499-534.) was used to facilitate the calculations of the method used to compare the economic sectors. First, the relative importance and thresholds of the criteria were defined, and from this, a partial pre-order of the economic sectors was derived. The SADGAGE system has computationally systematized the ELECTRE III-RP2-NSGA II+H methodology. The system recommends a partial pre-order of the sectors in decreasing order of attractiveness.
4.1 Analysis of the Results Obtained in the Context of the Economic Problem
The following economic sectors are part of the categories that are considered the most attractive in relative terms. A 29: Accessories, electrical appliances, and electric power generation equipment manufacturing, A 39: Intermediation of trade to the wholesale, A 62: Radio and television, A 40: Trade to the retail grocery, food, drinks, ice, and tobacco, A 22: Chemistry industry, and A 66: Central bank. This is because they perform better in the most important decision criteria. Most of these economic sectors are categorized by presenting values in all criteria above the average (see Table 6).
In contrast, the findings indicate that the economic sectors: A 5: Metallic and non-metallic minerals except petroleum and gas mining, A 10: Construction of civil engineering works, A 50: Railway transport, A 53: Road transport of passengers, except for railway, A 54: Pipeline transport, A 56: Transport-related services, A 64: Electronic processing of information, accommodation, and other related services, A 71: Movable property rental services, A 75: Business support services, A 79: Hospitals, A 82: Artistic, cultural, and sporting services belong to the class with the worst level of attractiveness. The common distinctive of these economic sectors is the low evaluation achieved by the sectors within the criteria that the DM deems most important, such as intermediate consumption and total fixed assets. Consequently, they report, in this class, values below the means, as shown in Table 7. Based on these findings, it can be confirmed that the economic sectors with these features belong to the class with lower levels of attractiveness.
The findings from applying multicriteria decision analysis to rank economic sectors in Mexico offer valuable insights for decision-makers and stakeholders. Here are the key points regarding the findings and any novelty observed in the results:
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In contrast to traditional methods that use composite indicators for sector comparison, the multicriteria approach used in this study provides a more comprehensive evaluation of economic sectors. Multiple criteria, such as the number of employees, remunerations, total gross production, and others, are considered to achieve a more nuanced and detailed sector performance assessment.
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The study ranks the dominant economic sectors in Mexico based on their attractiveness levels. This ranking is crucial for policymakers, financiers, entrepreneurs, trade unions, customers, and providers to make informed decisions about investments, policies, and risk management strategies.
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Applying the ELECTRE III method in the multicriteria ranking of economic sectors in Mexico presents a novel approach to evaluating sector performance. By utilizing a systematic and structured method, the study offers a formal procedure for assessing the attractiveness of economic sectors, which can benefit decision-makers in the public and private sectors.
In conclusion, the results of applying multicriteria decision analysis to rank economic sectors in Mexico provide a systematic and objective way to assess sector performance, offering valuable insights for stakeholders and decision-makers. The novelty lies in the comprehensive evaluation approach and the potential for future research to refine further and enhance the methodology for evaluating economic sectors.
5 CONCLUDING COMMENTS
Public policies and decision-making processes include conflicts and tensions since a group of actors is participating at the political level, power relations are involved, and economic interests are in dispute, issues that affect regional development. However, DMs must rely on tools that offer information scenarios and their technical feasibility. Therefore, Cabrero & Gil (2010CABRERO MENDOZA E & GIL GARCIA C. 2010. The Public Policy Agenda in Mexican Cities in the 20th Century: a Hundred Years of Municipal Solitude? Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos, 25(1): 133-173.) recommend systematic support from technical and professional commissions, which contribute to executing more rigorous and informed decision-making processes.
MCDA methodologies for solving complex decision-making problems are linked to government tasks. Therefore, this work proposes a support model based on the ELECTRE III method for the multicriteria ranking problem. Furthermore, this model works as a formal procedure that supports the assessment of the degree of attractiveness of Mexico’s economic sectors.
The goal of this research work was to present a structured method for the comprehensive comparison and ranking of the attractiveness of the dominant economic sectors in Mexico and thus select, for example, the most lagging economic sectors for the application of specific public policies and programs for their strengthening and consolidation. An additional objective is to educate the political and academic spheres in the region about the differences in this phenomenon across various economic sectors. Finally, our interest is to present evidence that allows public sector planners involved in issues that affect the population of Mexico to consider it when carrying out their planning exercises.
Traditionally, economic sectors are marginally compared using a composite indicator. However, in this paper, we comprehensively compare economic sectors. We use the respective data and representative economic indicators in the literature based on the variables used in the 2019 Mexican economic census.
The recommended multicriteria assessment approach for ranking the dominant economic sectors in the Mexican economy can be helpful for policymakers, financiers and entrepreneurs, trade unions, customers, and providers of specific economic sectors. Tax authorities can oblige complementary tax charges for the best-positioned sectors, namely accessories, electrical appliances, and electric power generation equipment manufacturing sector, intermediation of trade to the wholesale sector, radio and television sector, and chemistry industry sector, among others. Financiers can decide to invest in the long term in uncompetitive sectors, that is, the construction of civil engineering works, railway transportation, oil pipelines, and the hospital sector, among others, and take advantage of efficient sectors to make short-term investments. Finally, if customers and suppliers encounter incompetent economic sectors, they may wish to explore alternative risk management strategies, such as credit insurance. Therefore, a thorough evaluation of sector activities can enhance decision-making for all stakeholders and mitigate associated risks to some extent.
In future work, we will compare the attractiveness levels in Mexico’s economic sectors over time.
Other interesting future research lines are related to this work’s limitations. One of them is eliciting the parameter values that best suit the system of preferences of the DM. As it is well known, ELECTRE-based models require the definition of many parameters, and the direct estimates of their values may not represent the DM’s preferences. Furthermore, the problem addressed in this work can be naturally represented by a hierarchical structure of the criteria; thus, a detailed analysis should be performed to assess Mexico’s economic sectors using an approach that appropriately models such structures.
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APPENDIX 1
Effect of modifications in criteria weights and alterations in the values of the recommendation. Modifications of relative importance (weights) values (w) for two or more criteria at the same time.
Publication Dates
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Publication in this collection
19 Aug 2024 -
Date of issue
2024
History
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Received
08 Feb 2024 -
Accepted
04 June 2024