FORESIGHT CAPABILITY AND MATURITY FOR KNOWLEDGE-INTENSIVE ORGANIZATIONS

Vásquez, Javier Enrique Medina; Pazos, Leonardo Solarte; Arias, Luis Felipe Sánchez

doi:10.1590/S0034-759020220411x

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ARTICLES • Rev. adm. empres. 62 (04) • 2022 • https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-759020220411x copy

FORESIGHT CAPABILITY AND MATURITY FOR KNOWLEDGE-INTENSIVE ORGANIZATIONS

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

The article develops an institutional maturity perspective for foresight capacity building in knowledge-intensive organizations (KIO), as typically embedded in highly demanding dynamics of generation and use of knowledge, which is necessary for constructing comprehensive visions and studying the future. A foresight maturity grid is proposed as structured in five dimensions: people; sophistication of methods, platforms, and infrastructures; the complexity of application areas; organizational structure; and impact on the environment. Described in five maturity levels gradually progressing in organizational capabilities, they constitute an evolutionary logic operatively articulated in processes, projects, and foresight cycles. The resulting grid, conceptually constructed in consideration of other proposals, guides the design and stabilization of foresight systems, forming a basis for the accumulation of organizational learning curves. An application case in a Colombian public KIO provides evidence of its usefulness and applicability in building foresight capabilities.

Keywords:
maturity models; capability; foresight; knowledge-intensive organizations; learning curves.

Dimension	Level 1 Inconsistency	Level 2 Acknowledgement	Level 3 Integration	Level 4 Institutionalization	Level 5 Transformation
People	Foresight activities are carried out at the request of the organization's members, based on their personal experience and motivation.	Basic individual competencies are developed for simple foresight exercises of low complexity.	Competencies are developed and working teams are formed for the development of foresight projects with greater scope and complexity.	Competencies are developed at a specialized level with high-performance teams for the development of foresight programs.	Advanced competencies are consolidated for the development of simultaneous programs of high complexity and novelty. Theoretical knowledge is discussed.
Sophistication of methods, platforms and infrastructures	Tools and methods are selected and used based on the personal interest and experiences of the organization's members.	Basic foresight tools and methods and databases are used, according to themes defined by the organization.	Stable foresight processes are defined/adapted with methods of intermediate complexity, using the basic functionalities of specialized software.	Stable foresight processes are defined/adapted, using advanced foresight methods and advanced functionalities of specialized software.	New processes are created and proprietary applications, techniques, tools, and/or methods are designed to improve the foresight system.
Complexity of application areas	The application of foresight methods is aimed at specific issues on a particular topic. The scope is defined by the members according to immediate needs.	Foresight exercises are developed on a single topic, with a monodisciplinary approach.	Foresight projects are developed on two or three topics simultaneously, of medium complexity, with an interdisciplinary approach.	Foresight programs are developed on several topics or focus at the same time, of greater complexity, using a multidisciplinary approach.	Foresight programs are developed in multiple fields of high complexity, from a multidisciplinary approach.
Organizational structure	Roles and responsibilities are proposed by the members of the organization according to their experience and perception. Some roles may not be considered.	Basic roles and responsibilities are ensured according to the experience of the organization's members, including leadership and support roles.	Organizational mechanisms are defined to articulate some foresight processes and standards with elements of the organization's project management system.	The functions of a foresight unit are created, with a defined structure and roles that allow programming, managing, and monitoring the organization's foresight activities.	Requirements for the adjustment of processes and standards of other systems, such as the project management and innovation systems, are transmitted.
Impact on the environment	The impact of foresight may or may not be accounted for at the time it is applied. There is not necessarily an awareness of it.	The results of foresight exercises have an impact on the environment but limited.	The results of foresight projects have a regional or national impact in some knowledge areas.	The results of foresight programs have an important impact on some knowledge areas.	Frontier knowledge of global impact is generated in multiple knowledge areas.

Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Administração de Empresas de S.Paulo Av 9 de Julho, 2029, 01313-902 S. Paulo - SP Brasil, Tel.: (55 11) 3799-7999, Fax: (55 11) 3799-7871 - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
E-mail: rae@fgv.br

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[1] AUTHOR’S CONTRIBUTION

Javier Enrique Medina Vásquez, Leonardo Solarte Pazos and Luis Felipe Sánchez Arias worked on the conceptualization and theoretical-methodological approach, so as the theoretical review, data collection and analysis. Javier Enrique Medina Vásquez, Leonardo Solarte Pazos and Luis Felipe Sánchez Arias worked together in the writing and final revision of the manuscript.