Brazilian State debt sustainability: an analysis of net debt and primary balance

Abstract:

Public debt is an important element of governmental finances and its sustainability is an indication of the good management of a government's fiscal policy. This study aims to verify the sustainability of state debt in aggregate form by analyzing the cointegration and fiscal reaction of state primary balance and net debt, using monthly data from December/2001 to May/2014. The results indicate the existence of cointegration between the sets of primary balance and the state net debt, and that state governments have generated primary surpluses in view of state net debt growth. Therefore, there is evidence of debt sustainability concerning state debt during the period under analysis. However, recent challenges such as fiscal slackening and the slowdown in economic activity may make future sustainability uncertain.

Keywords:
sustainability; state public debt; primary balance; fiscal policy; cointegration.