A plywood international market model considering the main importing and exporting countries was built. The world market was modeled to simulate changes in production, flow and prices caused by shocks in the exogenous variables such as supply and demand changes. The chosen model assumes that imports are differentiated by production sites, i.e., plywood products coming from different places are not perfect substitutes. The results suggest that a demand increase, in Japanese, North American and German plywood tend to increase the prices of export countries that have larger participation in those markets. The less expressive countries in plywood market, in turn, are subject to very small increase in their prices or even suffer a reduction in prices, thus benefitting more with the increases in the commercial flows than those countries with larger world market participation. The Japanese plywood demand growth has little effect on Brazilian plywood prices, commercial flows and export revenue. However, in the case of Germany and United States plywood demand increase there is a significant Brazilian price and export revenue increase, but the amount of plywood commercialized by the country diminishes. An exogenous increase in the amount of plywood produced by a country reduces its price, increasing its participation in all markets. In the Brazilian case, a plywood supply growth increased its participation in all markets, but the total gross export income decreased, due to the fall in the plywood world prices.
Plywood; international trade; demand; supply
