ABSTRACT
In this study, it is aimed that the dynamic site index models were developed for Crimean Pine stands in Sarikaya-Cankiri forests located in middle northern Turkey. The data for this study are 153 sample trees obtained from the Crimean Pine stands. In modeling relationships between height and age of dominant or co-dominant trees, some dynamic site index equations such as Chapman-Richards (M1, M2, M3), Lundqvist (M4 and M6), Hossfeld (M5), Weibull (M7) and Schumacher (M8) based on the Generalized Algebraic Difference Approach (GADA) were used. The estimations for these eight-dynamic site index model parameters with well as various statistical values were obtained using the nonlinear regression technique. Among these equations, the Chapman-Richards’s equation, M3, was determined to be the most successful model, with accounted for 89.03 % of the total variance in height-age relationships with MSE: 1.7633, RMSE: 1.3279, SSE: 1165.6, Bias: -0.0380. After determination of the best predictive model, ARMA (1, 1) autoregressive prediction technique was used to account autocorrelation problems for time-series height measurements. When ARMA autoregressive prediction technique was applied to the Chapman-Richards function for solving autocorrelation problem, these success statistics were improved as SSE: 868.7, MSE: 1.3183, RMSE: 1.1482, Bias: -0.06369, R2: 0.918. Also, Durbin-Watson statistics displayed that autocorrelation problem was solved by the use of ARMA autoregressive prediction technique; DW test value=1.99, DW<P=0.5622, DW>P=0.4378. The dynamic site index model that was developed has provided results compatible with the growth characteristics expected in the modeling of height-age relations, such as polymorphism, multiple asymptote, and base-age invariance.
Keywords:
Dynamic site index model; Autoregressive modeling; Crimean pine
