OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (2000BP) and additive EuroSCORE (ES) for predicting surgical mortality at the Heart Institute, University of São Paulo. METHODS: A prospective observational design. Seven hundred and seventy four patients were operated for coronary artery bypass graft, valve or combined procedure between May and October, 2007, were analyzed. The mortality was estimated with the 2000BP and ES. The correlation between expected mortality and observed mortality was validated through calibration and discrimination test. RESULTS: The patients were stratified into five groups for the 2000BP and three for the ES. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test for 2000BP (P = 0.70) and for ES (P = 0.39) indicate a good calibration. The ROC curve for the 2000BP = 0.84 and for the ES = 0.81 confirms that the models are good predictors (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Both models are similar and adequate in predicting surgical mortality at the InCor-USP.
Risk Factors; Cardiac Surgical Procedures; Hospital Mortality
