Milk production is an activity of great importance in the Brazilian context, and it may be directly and indirectly affected if current climate predictions are confirmed until the end of this century. The objective of this work was to estimate climate change impacts on milk production in the states of Alagoas, Bahia and Sergipe. Values of the temperature humidity index (THI), decline in milk production (DMP) and decline in feed intake (DFI) of dairy cows were calculated for the B1 and A1F1 climate scenarios, described by the IPCC. A multiplicative model was used to estimate the effect of temperature change on the normal values of relative humidity. Based on both IPCC scenarios, production regions, located in the north and coast of the Bahia state and coastal areas of the states of Alagoas and Sergipe, will be adversely affected due to thermal stress, with profound reduction in milk production and feed intake, especially in case of animals with high genetic production potential. This scenario may affect the current producing in the northeastern states of Brazil, in such a way that milk production be limited only to animals with low productive performance.
thermal comfort; dairy cattle; THI; climatic risk; GIS
