It was sought, in this study, to verify the relationship between the duration, in days, of the largest dry spell and the productions of sugarcane, rice, pineapple, cotton, sisal, corn and bean, for the mesoregions of the State of Paraíba. The meteorological data used consisted of daily series of precipitation of pluviometric stations located in the state, over the period of January 1, 1963 to December 31, 1999. On the other hand, data of annual agricultural production of sugar-cane were used in million of tons, rice, cotton, sisal, corn and bean, in thousands of tons and pineapple, in millions of fruits for the Paraíba state, in the period from 1975 to 1994. It was verified that the productions of sugarcane, rice and pineapple, in the mesoregion [1] are independent of the duration of the dry spell, while the production of corn and bean, in the mesoregion [2+ 3] is highly dependent upon the duration of the dry spell events in those mesoregions. It is concluded, therefore, that the consideration of the dry spell occurrence for the mesoregion [2+ 3] is important in the agricultural planning, perhaps, even more significant than the forecast of the total precipitation, because in a specific year it may rain above the average due to concentration of rains over a few days.
threshold; temporary variability; coefficient of correlation
