This study aimed to estimate the average potential of production of the corn crop in consequence of the variation of the water availability and the planting performed at different dates within the recommended period for Guarapuava, Paraná State, Brazil. The study was conducted considering uninterrupted series of climate data for the period from 1984 to 2007. The duration of the crop cycle was calculated by the accumulation of the thermal sum and the availability of water evaluated by the water balance of the crop considering the distribution of the precipitation and the evapotranspiration of the crop. The probability of reduction of the grain yield due to shortage of water was estimated considering the percentage of the reduction of grain production with the occurrence of water deficiency in the different stages of the crop cycle. It was verified that the corn crop is affected by the distribution of the water availability along the crop cycle, with the highest probability of production losses for water deficiency occurring at the stage of anthesis-fecundation. Late planting in the recommended period tend to cause less risks of having grain productivity below the regional average.
rainfall; soil water deficit; grain production; Zea mays L
