This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk of sugarcane crop grown in Northeastern Brazil based on IPCC reports. The water balance model combined with geospatial technologies (GIS) was used to identify regional areas where the crop will suffer yield reduction due to climate changes. The data used in the study were time series of precipitation at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. A limit value of 0.65 was adopted for the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI), which is defined as the ratio between actual evapotranspiration and maximum evapotranspiration (ETr/ETm). The scenarios used in simulations without an increase in air temperature and an increase of 1.5, 3 and 5 º C were associated with changes in precipitation of ±10, ±25 and ±40%. The results indicate that there is significant difference between the warming scenarios and the current weather conditions, in terms of the projected effects of temperature variation on the areas cultivated with sugarcane in the study region.
climate change; agricultural zoning; evapotranspiration; rainfall
