ABSTRACT:
Objective:
To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Argentina, considering temporal trends in life expectancy at birth and premature mortality rate during 2010-2020.
Methods:
Based on demographic projections, this ecological time-series study compares a “normal” versus a “COVID-19” mortality scenario for 2020 over a set of 11 Argentine provinces. Annual life expectancy at birth and age-standardized rates of premature mortality were estimated from 2010 to 2020. Joinpoint regression and multilevel models were used.
Results:
A potential reduction in life expectancy at birth (a gap between scenarios >1 year) was observed. A significant (negative) point of inflection in temporal trends was identified for the country and most of the provinces, under the COVID-19 mortality scenario. However, our findings reveal disparities between provinces in the estimated life expectancy reduction toward 2020 (values range from -0.63 to -1.85 year in females and up to -2.55 years in males). While men showed more accentuated declines in life expectancy at birth in 2020 (a national gap between scenarios of -1.47 year in men vs. -1.35 year in women), women experienced more unfavorable temporal trends of premature mortality. In the absence of COVID-19, an improvement in both indicators was estimated toward 2020 in both sexes, while a return to levels reported in the past was observed under the COVID-19 scenario.
Conclusion:
The COVID-19 pandemic might seriously affect the trends of mortality and exacerbate health disadvantages in Argentina. A temporal and contextual perspective of health inequities merits special attention in the COVID-19 research.
Keywords:
SARS-CoV-2; Life expectancy; Premature mortality; Health status disparities; Demography; Latin America
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