Excess mortality from all causes during the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

ABSTRACT

Objective:

To evaluate excess mortality in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, due to the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020 to January 2022).

Methods:

Ecological study using secondary data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System, having the city of Rio de Janeiro as the unit of analysis. Excess mortality was estimated by the difference between the mean number of all expected deaths and the mean number of observed deaths, considering the 2015–2019 period. The quantile regression method was adjusted. The total value of cases above that expected by the historical series was estimated. Among all deaths, cases of COVID-19 and Influenza as underlying causes of death were selected. The ratio between excess mortality and deaths due to COVID-19 was calculated.

Results:

We identified an excess of 31,920 deaths by the mean (increase of 26.8%). The regression pointed to 31,363 excess deaths. We found 33,401 deaths from COVID-19 and 176 deaths from Influenza. The ratio between the verified excess mortality and deaths due to COVID-19 was 0.96 by the mean and 0.95 by the regression.

Conclusion:

The study pointed to large excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Rio de Janeiro distributed in waves, including the period of the Influenza outbreak.

Keywords:
COVID-19; Mortality; Epidemiology; Public health surveillance