Trend and spatial pattern of intimate partner rape notifications against women in Northeast Brazil (2013–2022)

Oliveira, Marília Ramalho; Madeiro, Alberto Pereira; Nascimento, Fernando Ferraz; Andrade, Jesusmar Ximenes; Rodrigues, Malvina Thais Pacheco; Mascarenhas, Márcio Dênis Medeiros

doi:10.1590/1980-549720240030

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Original Article • Rev. bras. Epidemiol. 27 • 2024 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-549720240030 copy

Trend and spatial pattern of intimate partner rape notifications against women in Northeast Brazil (2013–2022)

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

Objective:

To analyze the trend and spatial pattern of intimate partner rape reports against women in Northeast Brazil.

Methods:

Ecological time-series study and spatial analysis with secondary data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System between 2013 and 2022. Gross rape rates were calculated by type of intimate partner and by age group of the victim. Prais-Winsten regression was used to calculate the trend, and the global and local Moran indices were used for spatial analysis.

Results:

A total of 5,542 cases of intimate partner rape were reported. Spousal rates ranged from 0.34/100,000 women in 2013 to 0.51/100,000 in 2017, with greater increases between 2018 (1.04/100 thousand) and 2022 (1.28/100 thousand). There was an upward trend in the Northeast as a whole (APC=19.47; 95%CI 15.88–23.22) and in almost all states, except Paraíba and Sergipe. Cases perpetrated by boyfriends (APC=23.90; 95%CI 12.80–36.09) and among women aged 15 to 19 years (APC=22.63; 95%CI 4.18–44.35) showed the highest annual variation. A concentration of high rates was observed in several municipalities in the northwest of Ceará and southeast of Pernambuco.

Conclusion:

The trend in intimate partner rape rates against women increased in the Northeast, especially among younger women and by boyfriends, with a greater agglomeration of notifications in Ceará and Pernambuco.

Keywords:
Violence against women; Intimate partner violence; Sexual violence; Rape; Northeast

Characteristics (n=5,542)		N	%
State
	Alagoas	179	3.2
	Bahia	993	17.9
	Ceará	900	16.2
	Maranhão	279	5.0
	Paraíba	355	6.4
	Pernambuco	2,351	42.4
	Piauí	314	5.7
	Rio Grande do Norte	87	1.6
	Sergipe	84	1.5
Relationship with the perpetrator
	Spouse	2,137	41.3
	Ex-spouse	1,603	31.0
	Boyfriend	818	15.8
	Ex-boyfriend	621	12.0
Age range of the victim (in years)
	15–19	1,292	23.3
	20–29	1,396	25.2
	30–39	1,537	27.7
	40–49	893	16.2
	50–59	309	5.6
	60 or more	112	2.0
Race/skin color^* * Ignored/blank: 172 notifications (3.1%);
	White	1,004	18.1
	Black	781	14.1
	Yellow	61	1.1
	Brown	3,497	63.1
	Indigenous	27	0.5
Education^† † Ignored/blank: 1,129 notifications (20.4%);
	Illiterate	87	1.6
	(Incomplete/complete) elementary education	1,657	39.9
	(Incomplete/complete) high school education	1,950	25.2
	(Incomplete/complete) higher education	719	13.0
Location of occurrence
	Residence	4,571	82.5
	Public places	263	4.7
	Others^‡ ‡ Others: Collective housing/school/sports venue/bar or similar/commerce/services/industries/construction/ignored/blank;	12	12.8
Recurrent violence^§ § Ignored/blank: 356 notifications (6.4%);
	Yes	3,978	71.8
	No	1,208	21.8
Suspected alcohol use^// // Ignored/blank: 843 notifications (15.2%).
	Yes	2,027	36.6
	No	2,672	48.2

Year	Spouse			Ex-spouse			Boyfriend			Ex-boyfriend			Total
Year	n	%	GR^a	n	%	GR^a	n	%	GR	n	%	GR^a	n	%	GR^* * Gross rape rate per 100,000 women;
2013	95	4.4	0.34	60	3.7	0.20	37	4.5	0.13	22	3.5	0.08	243	4.4	0.86
2014	103	4.8	0.36	61	3.8	0.20	20	2.4	0.07	20	3.2	0.07	223	4.0	0.78
2015	96	4.5	0.33	90	5.6	0.30	34	4.2	0.12	27	4.3	0.09	270	4.9	0.94
2016	133	6.2	0.46	111	6.9	0.38	33	4.0	0.11	44	7.1	0.15	347	6.3	1.20
2017	147	6.9	0.51	147	9.2	0.51	49	6.0	0.17	55	8.9	0.19	441	8.0	1.52
2018	305	14.3	1.04	155	9.7	0.53	90	11.0	0.31	69	11.1	0.24	652	11.8	2.23
2019	283	13.2	0.96	161	10.0	0.55	105	12.8	0.36	74	11.9	0.25	668	12.1	2.27
2020	242	11.3	0.82	164	10.2	0.55	184	22.5	0.62	63	10.1	0.21	691	12.5	2.34
2021	349	16.3	1.17	289	18.0	0.97	156	19.1	0.52	110	17.7	0.37	958	17.3	3.22
2022	384	18.0	1.28	365	22.8	1.22	110	13.4	0.37	137	22.1	0.46	1,049	18.9	3.51
Total	2,137	100	–	1,603	100	–	818	100	–	621	100	–	5,542	100	–
Mean^† † Mean annual crude rate of intimate partner rape. SD: Standard deviation.	–	–	0.73	–	–	0.55	–	–	0.28	–	–	0.21	–	–	1.89
SD	–	–	0.37	–	–	0.32	–	–	0.18	–	–	0.12	–	–	0.98

Characteristics		APC (%)	95%CI	p-value	DW	Trend
State
	Alagoas	34.51	20.91; 49.63	<0.001	1.964	Growing
	Bahia	20.23	12.12; 28.94	<0.001	1.735	Growing
	Ceará	42.11	22.46; 64.91	0.001	1.433	Growing
	Maranhão	19.58	8.85; 31.37	0.002	1.643	Growing
	Paraíba	-0.35	-15.81; 17.94	0.963	1.791	Stationary
	Pernambuco	18.39	10.22; 27.17	0.001	1.854	Growing
	Piauí	14.40	1.94; 28.38	0.027	1.525	Growing
	Rio Grande do Norte	23.87	7.38; 42.89	0.009	1.962	Growing
	Sergipe	12.65	-14.92; 49.15	0.356	1.543	Stationary
	All	19.47	15.84; 23.22	<0.001	1.782	Growing
Relationship with the perpetrator
	Spouse	18.31	12.51; 24.39	<0.001	1.955	Growing
	Ex-spouse	20.31	15.23; 25.61	<0.001	1.786	Growing
	Boyfriend	23.90	12.80; 36.09	0.001	1.607	Growing
	Ex-boyfriend	22.39	16.40; 28.69	<0.001	1.871	Growing
Age range (in years)
	15-19	22.63	4.18; 44.35	0.020	1.595	Growing
	20-29	18.68	15.45; 22.00	<0.001	1.834	Growing
	30-39	17.31	12.76; 22.05	<0.001	1.746	Growing
	40-49	17.88	13.98; 21.92	<0.001	1.843	Growing
	50-59	17.81	10.84; 25.21	<0.001	1.542	Growing
	60 or more	11.82	6.45; 17.46	0.001	1.911	Growing

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[1] CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Marília Ramalho Oliveira. Avenida Frei Serafim, 2280, Centro, CEP: 64000-020, Teresina (PI), Brasil. E-mail: mary.ramalho02@gmail.com