El régimen de fecundidad en Argentina (1980-2010): ¿El final de la primera transición demográfica o una segunda emergente?

Mertehikian, Yasmin A.

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ORIGINAL ARTICLE • Rev. bras. estud. popul. 39 • 2022 • https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0201 copiar

El régimen de fecundidad en Argentina (1980-2010): ¿El final de la primera transición demográfica o una segunda emergente?

Autoría SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Resumen

La transición de la fecundidad en Argentina tiene características excepcionales. Comparada con la mayoría de los países latinoamericanos, la fecundidad en Argentina disminuyó relativamente temprano y, a diferencia de las transiciones de fecundidad en Europa occidental, este descenso no condujo a un período de alto crecimiento natural de la población. A principios del siglo XXI, Argentina parecía experimentar un estancamiento de la fecundidad a pesar del aumento de la educación formal y de la participación laboral de las mujeres y de una mayor disponibilidad de anticonceptivos. Utilizando los Censos de Población de 1980, 1991, 2001 y 2010, demuestro que la fecundidad ha continuado su tendencia descendente desde 1980 hasta 2010. Los cambios en los comportamientos de fecundidad vienen dados por una disminución del número promedio de hijos por mujer, pero no por un aumento de la nuliparidad. Sin embargo, hay evidencia de un aplazamiento de la fecundidad. Los resultados muestran que, aunque Argentina está completando su primera transición demográfica, ya que aún no ha alcanzado una fecundidad por debajo del nivel de reemplazo, este país podría mostrar signos de una segunda transición demográfica emergente.

Palabras clave:
Argentina; Transición demográfica; Fecundidad

Age groups	1931-1935	1936-1940	1941-1945	1946-1950	1951-1955	1956-1960	1961-1965	1966-1970	1971-1975	1976-1980	1981-1985	1986-1990	1991-1995
15-19							X		X		X		X
20-24						X		X		X		X
25-29					X		X		X		X
30-34				X		X		X		X
35-39			X		X		X		X
40-44		X		X		X		X
45-49	X		X		X		X

Census year	Total Fertility Rate
1980	3.15
1991	2.89
2001	2.64
2010	2.35

Indicator	First birth order	Second birth order	Third birth order
1980	0.84	0.85	0.60
1991	0.87	0.79	0.58
2001	0.89	0.67	0.42
2010	0.83	0.64	0.35
Percent change 1980-2010 (%)	-0.60	-24.70	-42.10
Contribution to total change in TFR 1980-2010 (considering up to three children) (%)	1.08	44.82	54.10
Percent change 1980-1991 (%)	4.41	-7.29	-2.71
Contribution to total change in TFR 1980-1991 (considering up to three children) (%)	-89.64	150.09	39.55
Percent change 1991-2001 (%)	2.23	-14.18	-28.23
Contribution to total change in TFR 1991-2001 (considering up to three children) (%)	-7.61	43.41	64.20
Percent change 2001-2010 (%)	-6.88	-5.34	-17.07
Contribution to total change in TFR 2001-2010 (considering up to three children) (%)	36.37	21.32	42.30

Age groups	0	1	2	3	4 or more	Cumulative percentage	Mean number of children
1980
15-49	36.89	15.37	21.03	12.53	14.18	100	1.84
15-19	88.18	8.52	2.61	0.56	0.13	100	0.16
20-24	56.36	20.29	13.94	6.13	3.28	100	0.81
25-29	30.37	21.04	24.67	12.93	10.99	100	1.62
30-34	18.20	15.63	29.36	18.54	18.27	100	2.23
35-39	13.86	13.16	28.08	20.16	24.74	100	2.62
40-44	12.75	13.42	28.05	18.76	27.02	100	2.76
45-49	13.58	14.78	28.67	16.96	26.01	100	2.70
1991
15-49	37.89	14.67	19.36	13.62	14.46	100	1.79
15-19	88.06	8.62	2.35	0.64	0.33	100	0.17
20-24	58.37	20.36	12.96	5.56	2.75	100	0.75
25-29	32.94	21.32	21.88	12.70	11.16	100	1.56
30-34	18.90	15.78	26.34	18.73	20.24	100	2.25
35-39	13.72	12.04	26.19	22.33	25.73	100	2.60
40-44	13.05	11.66	26.62	22.37	26.29	100	2.64
45-49	13.08	12.55	28.14	21.18	25.06	100	2.60
2001
15-49	38.21	16.41	18.38	12.56	14.44	100	1.80
15-19	87.50	10.08	1.93	0.36	0.13	100	0.16
20-24	58.93	22.82	11.53	4.39	2.34	100	0.70
25-29	36.99	23.22	19.64	10.37	9.78	100	1.40
30-34	19.66	19.28	25.57	16.29	19.21	100	2.15
35-39	12.46	13.72	27.41	20.87	25.54	100	2.60
40-44	9.99	11.56	26.41	22.83	29.22	100	2.81
45-49	9.37	11.42	26.48	23.44	29.29	100	2.83
2010
15-49	38.42	19.13	19.44	11.49	11.52	100	1.64
15-19	86.90	10.90	1.80	0.28	0.11	100	0.16
20-24	58.69	25.89	10.97	3.32	1.13	100	0.63
25-29	39.16	26.86	19.81	8.77	5.40	100	1.17
30-34	23.24	23.69	26.83	14.02	12.22	100	1.78
35-39	14.03	17.42	29.57	18.81	20.16	100	2.34
40-44	10.83	13.75	28.60	21.37	25.45	100	2.63
45-49	9.89	12.34	27.26	22.61	27.90	100	2.75

Birth cohorts and age groups	Estimate	Standard error	T-value	P-value
1931-1935: 45-49	2.70	0.00	707.61	0.00
1936-1940: 40-44	2.76	0.00	733.39	0.00
1941-1945: 35-39	2.62	0.00	738.96	0.00
1941-1945: 45-49	2.60	0.00	715.24	0.00
1946-1950: 30-34	2.23	0.00	673.95	0.00
1946-1950: 40-44	2.64	0.00	785.32	0.00
1951-1955: 25-29	1.62	0.00	506.02	0.00
1951-1955: 35-39	2.60	0.00	809.07	0.00
1951-1955: 45-49	2.83	0.00	847.92	0.00
1956-1960: 20-24	0.81	0.00	260.21	0.00
1956-1960: 30-34	2.25	0.00	717.03	0.00
1956-1960: 40-44	2.81	0.00	874.62	0.00
1961-1965: 15-19	0.16	0.00	52.21	0.00
1961-1965: 25-29	1.56	0.00	507.80	0.00
1961-1965: 35-39	2.60	0.00	830.83	0.00
1961-1965: 45-49	2.75	0.00	869.76	0.00
1966-1970: 20-24	0.75	0.00	253.18	0.00
1966-1970: 30-34	2.15	0.00	710.54	0.00
1966-1970: 40-44	2.63	0.00	855.35	0.00
1971-1975: 15-19	0.17	0.00	60.31	0.00
1971-1975: 25-29	1.40	0.00	494.88	0.00
1971-1975: 35-39	2.34	0.00	817.32	0.00
1976-1980: 20-24	0.70	0.00	266.42	0.00
1976-1980: 30-34	1.78	0.00	674.56	0.00
1981-1985: 15-19	0.16	0.00	59.24	0.00
1981-1985: 25-29	1.17	0.00	444.49	0.00
1986-1990: 20-24	0.63	0.00	243.40	0.00
1991-1995: 15-19	0.16	0.00	63.34	0.00
Observations: 6,664,625
R²: 0.62

Age groups	1931-1935	1936-1940	1941-1945	1946-1950	1951-1955	1956-1960	1961-1965	1966-1970	1971-1975	1976-1980	1981-1985	1986-1990	1991-1995
15-19							0.88		0.88		0.87		0.87
20-24						0.56		0.58		0.59		0.59
25-29					0.30		0.33		0.37		0.39
30-34				0.18		0.19		0.20		0.23
35-39			0.14		0.14		0.12		0.14
40-44		0.13		0.13		0.10		0.11
45-49	0.14		0.13		0.09		0.10

Variables	Observations	Mean	SD	Min	Max
1980
Age	626,548	29.95	9.901361	15	49
Number of children	626,548	1.939	2.105851	0	8
Birth last year	626,548	0.1112	0.3143974	0	1
No children	626,548	0.3508	0.4772123	0	1
Less than primary education	626,548	0.3231	0.4676654	0	1
Primary education	626,548	0.505	0.4999756	0	1
High school education	626,548	0.1518	0.3587792	0	1
College or more	626,548	0.02015	0.1405246	0	1
1991
Age	1,025,107	30.3	9.962097	15	49
Number of children	1,025,107	1.676	1.781242	0	8
Birth last year	1,025,107	0.08585	0.2801491	0	1
No children	1,025,107	0.3763	0.4844685	0	1
Less than primary education	1,025,107	0.1373	0.3442018	0	1
Primary education	1,025,107	0.5513	0.497366	0	1
High school education	1,025,107	0.2705	0.4442075	0	1
College or more	1,025,107	0.04093	0.1981222	0	1
2001
Age	890,908	30.2	10.01538	15	49
Number of children	890,908	1.628	1.781252	0	8
Birth last year	890,908	0.07953	0.270568	0	1
No children	890,908	0.3821	0.4859052	0	1
Less than primary education	890,908	0.0799	0.2711393	0	1
Primary education	890,908	0.4915	0.4999287	0	1
High school education	890,908	0.3651	0.4814684	0	1
College or more	890,908	0.06342	0.2437222	0	1
2010
Age	4,122,062	30.09	9.91892	15	49
Number of children	4,122,062	1.672	1.76026	0	8
Birth last year	4,122,062	0.07227	0.2589327	0	1
No children	4,122,062	0.3451	0.47539	0	1
Less than primary education	4,122,062	0.1146	0.3184869	0	1
Primary education	4,122,062	0.4715	0.4991893	0	1
High school education	4,122,062	0.3677	0.4821768	0	1
College or more	4,122,062	0.04621	0.2099472	0	1

Age groups	1931-1935	1936-1940	1941-1945	1946-1950	1951-1955	1956-1960	1961-1965	1966-1970	1971-1975	1976-1980	1981-1985	1986-1990	1991-1995
15-19							0.16		0.17		0.16		0.16
20-24						0.81		0.75		0.70		0.63
25-29					1.62		1.56		1.40		1.17
30-34				2.23		2.25		2.15		1.78
35-39			2.62		2.60		2.60		2.34
40-44		2.8		2.64		2.81		2.63
45-49	2.70		2.60		2.83		2.75

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