The objectives of this work were to model the distribution of NDVI-MODIS data, in six distinct targets: Crop Land Areas, Gallery Forest, Cerrado, Pastureland, Urban Areas and Semideciduous Seasonal Forest; and also to analyze the physiognomies changes of the index through of waveform models, period 2000-2008, at the Paracatu River Basin (São Francisco Sub-River Basin). The materials and methods were detached in the steps: (a) getting MODIS images; (b) noise treatment; (c) math modeling of the NDVI temporal signature; and (d) analysis of statistical relation between NDVI and open canopy. The nonlinear regression, waveform model, to spread NDVI by temporal series, got high significance of its parameters (R² and p) and tolerable error. With this could identify the physiognomies to be delimited, and to simulate future temporal series by land use, vegetation cover and area extension of each physiognomy. The standard of distribution of the NDVI data showed significant relation with field data of open canopy, this could to be a precise indicator of land use change between the temporal series.
nonlinear regression; waveform model; Sao Francisco River
