Influence of Climatic Changes on Agricultural Land Suitability Potential for Wheat Cultivation in the Guarapuava Microregion, Southern Brazil

Abstract

Evidence that global climate change will occur as a result of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases has been increasingly consistent and accepted by the international scientific community. This study aimed to evaluate climate change estimates in the Guarapuava microregion in the state of Paraná, analyzing the impacts on the wheat crop, using modeling for future scenarios and comparing with a base scenario of the past. Mathematical adequacy models were adjusted using Multiple Criteria Analysis (MCA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), with the purpose of evaluating the possible impacts of climate changes on wheat crop, using the climatic scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (IPCC) for the calculation of the Land suitability potential in the Guarapuava-PR microregion. The results indicate that the factor of greatest impact for the reduction of the agricultural aptitude index of the wheat in the next 30 years is the projection of increase of the average monthly temperature by approximately 1.5 to 2 °C during the development cycle of the crop in the field.

Keywords:
climatic scenarios; multi-criterial analysis; land suitability potential; IPCC