Climate Variability with Emphasis on Precipitation and Migratory Impact in the State of Ceará (1960-2010)

Abstract

This study aimed to make a relation of climatic variability, with emphasis on the variability of precipitation, in the Northeast Region of Brazil and the influence on human migratory displacement in the state of Ceará due to the environmental disturbance of this rainfall variability. The study was based on data from migratory demographic censuses, for the state of Ceará, and rainfall data in Northeast Brazil, between the 1960 and 2010 years. The methodology investigated the characteristics of these migratory displacements, evaluating data on their mobility interstate in associations with government programs, in addition to inferring relationships with the variability of decadal rains between 1960-2010 in the Northeast Region of Brazil. The results of the study suggested that the reduction in the number of migrants to other regions of the country was more influenced by income transfer and development programs in small and medium-sized cities, than direct impacts of rainfall variability in the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil.

Keywords climatic variables; migration; semi-arid; mitigation