Projection of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Events in the Verde River Hydrographic Basin

Abstract

Droughts can lead to a water crisis, which can affect food production and cause socio-environmental impacts. This research aims to analyze the behavior of meteorological and hydrological droughts through the use of standardized drought indices, calculated from climate projections of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The SPI and SPEI indices were used for meteorological droughts and the SSFI for hydrological droughts, based on discharge simulated by the SWAT and VIC hydrological models. For the current climate (1961 to 2005) the SPEI and SPI indices showed similar results regarding extreme drought events. For the future climate (2005 to 2099), the SPI presented similar drought results when considering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The SPEI presented more divergent results when considering each scenario. In the future climate, the SSFI simulated extreme droughts for the scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Taking into account the behavior of drought indices for the same time scale, meteorological drought may have influenced hydrological drought, generating a reduction in river discharges almost simultaneously due to the small area of the basin considered. These results can be used in planning policies and strategies that aim to minimize the impacts of droughts in the region.

Keywords Climate change; Meteorological drought; Hydrological drought; SWAT; VIC