Abstract
Downward longwave irradiance DLF is one of the main components of the surface radiation balance (SRB), but its direct measurement is currently limited. Clouds modulate its behavior, and clear-sky DLF0 is predominant in composition of the final DLF value. It is shown that in mid-latitude and tropical atmospheres, DLF0 can be represented as the sum of fluxes from three distinct spectral regions: R1 (λ < 7.5 µm), R2 (7.5 to 14 µm), and R3 (λ > 14 µm). R1 and R3 are closely described by blackbody radiation at screen temperature (Tscr), while R2 exhibits a mean emissivity that primarily depends on total precipitable water (w). It is presented a simple yet consistent physically-based model (hereafter denoted by OLD0), suitable for estimation of DLF0 at ground level. Validation of OLD0 with ground-based data of a worldwide set of 21 stations shows fair accuracy with bias MBE lower than 6 W.m-2 and spread (standard deviation STD) lower than 12 W.m-2 for typical values DLF0 ~ 300-400 W.m-2, compatible with surface pyrgeometer measures. The proposed algorithm outperforms existing methods, achieving a mean bias error (in module |MBE|) of approximately 2.8 W.m-2. In contrast, other widely used algorithms typically exhibit |MBEs| ranging from 8.1 to 15.9 W.m-2.
Keywords
downward longwave radiation; clear sky radiation; atmospheric longwave model; model OLD0
Resumo
A irradiância descendente de onda longa DLF é uma das principais componentes do balanço de radiação à superfície (SRB, Surface Radiation Balance); porém, sua medição não é frequente. A cobertura de nuvens modula o seu comportamento e o fluxo de céu claro DLF0 tem peso predominante no valor final de DLF. O presente trabalho mostra que, nas atmosferas tropical e de latitudes médias, DLF0 pode ser representado como as contribuições em três intervalos espectrais específicos: R1 (λ < 7.5 µm), R2 (7.5 a 14 µm) e R3 (λ > 14 µm). R1 e R3 são descritos em boa aproximação pelo espectro de corpo negro à temperatura de abrigo (Tscr), enquanto R2 possui emissividade média que depende principalmente da água precipitável (w). Apresenta-se um modelo simples e fisicamente consistente (OLD0 no que segue), apropriado para estimar DLF0 à superfície. A validação de OLD0 com dados de superfície (21 estações em escala mundial) mostra acurácia com viés MBE inferior a 6 W.m-2 e dispersão (desvio padrão STD) menor que 12 W.m-2 para valores típicos DLF0 ~ 300-400 W.m-2 compatíveis com a precisão dos pirgeômetros). O algoritmo proposto mostra desempenho superior ao dos usuais, exibindo uma média dos desvios absolutos MAE ~ 2.8 W.m-2. Em contraste, outros algoritmos frequentemente usados exibem MAE entre 8.1 e 15.9 W.m-2.
Palavras-chave
radiação de onda longa descendente; radiação de céu claro; modelo de onda longa atmosférica; modelo OLD0
1. Introduction
Surface radiation balance (hereafter SRB) is the main component in energy exchange between ground and atmosphere, having direct impact on evapotranspiration of vegetated surfaces, on natural environment and ultimately on regional climate. Downward long-wave component DLF is much less documented than solarimetric fluxes, being measured mainly in specialized networks like worldwide Baseline Surface Radiation Network (Zhang et al., 2015), Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility of the United States Department of Energy and SURFRAD (Augustine et al., 2000), both in USA, or SONDA in Brazil. Satellite-based estimations have become the clue for high-resolution global-scale mapping. Such estimations have been undertaken by programs like NASA-GEWEX SRB project, based on massive satellite data sets along the last 25 years; also, estimations over Meteosat monitoring area are performed since 2005 (Schulz et al., 2009; Trigo et al., 2010).
DLF can be thought in terms of clear-sky flux DLF0 corrected by cloud influence. A number of published algorithms assess DLF0 using ground-based meteorological data; corrections for cloud influence use to be based on empirical expressions that depend on cloud cover registered by observer, or on shortwave clearness indexes (Niemelä et al., 2001; Flerchinger et al., 2009). For estimations of DLF by Numerical Circulation Models as well as by satellite-based monitoring, mean values over a limited region and short-time interval are given by (Schmetz et al., 1986; Gupta, 1989):
Here, Ac represents the cloud cover fraction, while DLF0 and DLFc denote the downward longwave flux for clear and overcast skies, respectively. The partial derivative depends on difference between DLFc and DLF0 and allows evaluation of cloudiness effects. Schmetz (1969) reported that for clear-sky conditions, the layers above 500 m contribute to DLF0 in 20% (midlatitude winter) and 16% (tropical atmosphere). Considering cloud base at 2 km, cloud contribution in overcast conditions represents one third of DLF in mid-latitude winter and only 8% in tropical environment. While clouds can significantly influence local dynamic and thermodynamic processes, downward longwave flux from the atmosphere, primarily driven by DLF0, remains the dominant component in Eq. (1). This paper will therefore concentrate on estimating DLF0. The overcast flux (DLFc) will be addressed in a further study. DLFc uses to be assessed as a blackbody total irradiance at near-surface air temperature Ta, corrected by an emissivity ɛa dependent on atmospheric conditions. Various currently used algorithms claim to estimate atmospheric emissivity ɛa as a function of near ground temperature Ta and/or local humidity represented by near-ground water vapor pressure ea. Their foundations have been increasingly complex in time. Earlier approach by Brunt (1932) proposed ɛa to be a function of square root of vapor pressure (√ea); he found reasonable empirical linear fit with measures at various sites as Benson (England), Upsala (Sweden), Algeria and France. Swinbank (1963) showed that ɛa deduced from Benson data would be proportional to Ta2 rather than dependent on humidity, assumption confirmed for Aspendale and Kerang (Australia), and equatorial Indian Ocean. Similar fitting behavior was reported for northern Germany (Schmetz et al., 1986). Both models were essentially empirical although justified by some physical reasoning. Brutsaert (1975) integrated Schwartzschild's equation (Liou, 1980) using a profile similar to US standard atmosphere (exponential decrease of pressure, temperature and vapor density) and wideband emissivity of a H2O + CO2 slab (fitted as potential function of vertical optical path). This procedure leads to an emissivity proportional to a power of near-surface vapor density, ɛa ∝ (ea/Ta)1/7. Prata (1996) pointed out that CO2 effect would not be properly described in drier atmospheres and proposed an ad-hoc algorithm for waveband emissivity of the same H2O + CO2 slab, leading to a more complex expression of ɛa (a function of precipitable water w parameterized through variables ea, Ta). In order to validate results, DLF0 was estimated by Prata's formula and by LOWTRAN7 processing of a set of measured (radiosonde) and standard TIGR atmospheric profiles (Chedin et al., 1985) all over the world. Last but not least, Dilley and O'Brien (1998) considered Schwarzschild equation and its solution for monochromatic diffuse irradiance. This one is an exponential integral function E(τ) (Liou, 1980) with τ being a “grey optical depth” assumed as linear combination of Ta and √w. Proper coefficients are found by fitting DLFo estimation to results of spectral integration of Schwarzschild equation using actual τ(λ) provided by LOWTRAN7 and TIGR profiles. Performance of all models is in general satisfactory, but it is recommended their improvement by adaptation of coefficients to local DLF0 measurements (e.g. Flerchinger et al., 2009; Kruk et al., 2010) algorithms in order to perform fitting between multispectral signal and surface measured fluxes (see Lee and Ellingson, 2002; Tang and Li, 2008; Wang and Liang, 2009; Wu et al., 2012; Masiri et al., 2017). On the other hand, Gupta et al. (1992) developed an algorithm that uses satellite-based atmospheric retrieval and a spectral radiative code; integrated DLF0 is fitted as a function of precipitable water and temperature at three atmospheric levels. It has been tested with a high number of profiles and seems applicable in any situation, being applied to worldwide DLF estimation by NASA-GEWEX SRB project (Zhang et al., 2015).
It is desirable to have a DLF0 physical (universal) model which can be easily applied to ground-based data as well as to satellite information. Complex or not, usual models need to define proper coefficients by empirical fit of model to local observed values (measured or computed) considering integral values for DLF0. In this paper we show that a closer analysis of DLF0 spectral behavior allows substantial simplifications. In section 2 we deduce a model numerically simple, physically robust and explicitly based on only two atmospheric parameters: near-ground temperature Ta and precipitable water w. The limiting condition is a planetary boundary layer with water column of at least 1 g.cm-2 (10 kg.m-2). Section 3 describes the data sets and criterions used for validation. Section 4 shows model performance for a worldwide set of 21 sites and comparison with five usual estimators. Proposed DLF0 estimator shows good performance within temperate, semiarid and tropical climates, and (as far as possible) does not need fitting to local atmospheric profile.
2. Clear-Sky Model and Parameterization for DLF0
Atmosphere as a whole is not a body in thermodynamic and radiative equilibrium. For practical purposes, current algorithms estimate DLF0 in terms of surface meteorological variables through a Stefan-Bolzmann-like expression
Here Ta is near ground air temperature (compatible with screen temperature Tscr conventionally obtained at a meteorological station, so that Ta = Tscr), σTa4 the corresponding blackbody emittance in infrared spectral interval (in practice, 4-100 µm) and ɛa is an effective atmospheric emissivity which depends on temperature and atmospheric profiles within height interval z:(0, ∞). The main source of DLF0 is emission from water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3). Its main spectral characteristics were early depicted by Simpson in 1920 decade (Johnson, 1954, chapter 4) who showed that both H2O and CO2 strongly absorb (hence also emit) infrared thermal radiation throughout IR spectrum, except for an interval known as “atmospheric window”. Within this window, additional (weak) radiative flux is due to the 9.6 μm O3 band and to H2O continuum. Kondratyev (1969), Idso (1981), Schmetz (1989), Niemelä et al. (2001) and Cucumo et al. (2006), among others, have also described this spectral characteristic. A parameterization of atmospheric emissivity ɛa refers to a weighted value of ɛ(λ) over the infrared spectrum. It is currently obtained by computing total DLF0 for a standard atmosphere or by parameterizing its fit to results of a bunch of profiles (TIGR collection, for instance). Subsequently, it has been usual to “correct” parameters by comparison with local measurements of DLF0. These bulk results do not clearly show the relationship between ɛ(λ), the infrared spectrum and the atmospheric profile.
In order to better understand DLF0 spectral structure, we used the radiative code SBDART (“Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer”, Ricchiazzi et al., 1998). It is based on LOWTRAN 7 radiation database and has 20 cm-1 spectral resolution; in its standard mode it uses 1 km layers for atmospheric profiles but better vertical resolution is allowed. SBDART standard profiles are close (but not identical) to the ones published by McClatchey et al. (1972). They include several minor gases; CO2 concentration is 360 ppm.
Firstly, a diagnostic test was performed considering potential contribution of single gases in a tropical atmosphere. Figure 1 shows the results for six gaseous components (CO2, O3, CH4, N2O, O2, H2O) as well as the overall spectrum of DLF0. There is a strong downward flux due to CO2 in the 14 μm band as well as a weaker flux in 4.8 and 5.2 μm bands, and a moderately intense pair of bands at 10.4 and 9.4 µm. Ozone (O3) exhibits irradiance in the bands of 4.75, 9.6 (most intense) and 14.3 μm. Minor gases like CH4 and N2O, as well as O2, show somewhat intense bands between 6 and 8 μm and also at 17 μm. Concerning the overall effect, the most relevant aspect is water vapor contribution to DLF0. Indeed, H2O spectral flux itself closely describes the spectrum of downward long-wave radiation for λ < 7.5 μm and λ > 14 μm. The intermediate region λ: (7.5-14 μm) shows predominance of the water vapor continuum, as well as the presence of O3 emission from the upper atmosphere. Thence, we recognize three well defined spectral regions (hereafter named R1, R2 and R3). Closer inspection of Fig. 1 makes evident that: 1) the global effect of CO2, O2, N2O and CH4 bands overlapping H2O band in region R1 (λ < 7.5 μm) yields a spectrum close to that of H2O alone, with some influence of the weak CO2 4.8 μm band; 2) R3 region (λ > 14 μm) closely follows H2O spectrum except for weak influence of CO2 14 μm band; 3) R2 [7.5-14 μm] is mainly described by H2O plus O3 properties only.
Spectral contribution of various gases to ground level DLF0 (labeled “DLW”). Atmospheric profile: Tropical atmosphere used in SBDART. “Others” refers to CH4, N2O, O2 footprints.
A second fact is highlighted by spectral DLF0 in different atmospheres. Figure 2 illustrates SBDART application for tropical, mid-latitude summer and subarctic summer profiles. Brightness temperature TB(λ) in lieu of spectral irradiance Eλ is shown. The variable TB corresponds to a blackbody emitting the same irradiance Eλ at wavelength λ. We find the same spectral intervals R1, R2, R3 for all atmospheres; in particular, it is seen that regions 1 and 3 closely follow a blackbody spectrum with temperature of the lowest layer. However, this apparent behavior could be induced by the unrealistic physics of this layer (described as 1 km thick, homogeneous and isothermal).
Spectrum of brightness temperature at ground level for three model atmospheres used in SBDART: Tropical atmosphere, Mid-latitude Summer and Subarctic Summer.
In order to clarify lowest layers behavior, SBDART was applied to several detailed atmospheric profiles. Figure 3 illustrates results for a real sounding case (pressure, temperature, humidity at Santa Maria site, in Southern Brazil). Layers had vertical resolution of 50-70 m within the first kilometer and 500 m for upper altitudes. Curves represent spectral DLF0 at ground level (z = 0) in terms of brightness temperature TB(λ), for atmospheric profile on 16 November 2012, 1200 UTC. Temperature profile was conserved, but atmosphere was “dried” (setting null humidity) for layers above z = 180, 360, 550, 960 and 2700 m (obtaining five TB spectra). Legend indicates the water column (in g.cm-2) resulting from each drying process. The total precipitable water is 2.03 g.cm-2; calculations for z > 2700 m has shown that radiative contributions of upper layers do not increase the near-surface R2 spectrum. Concentration of other gases follows SDBART profile for a tropical atmosphere. It is seen that spectral TB (thus Eλ) increases with increasing water content and converges to a constant value TB0 for regions R1 and R3. Within R1, TB0 is virtually reached by a layer of about 360 m thickness (except for a persistent footprint of CO2 at 4.75 μm). R3 needs a 960 m thick layer in order to reach TB0 within the interval 16-25 μm.
DLF spectra at ground level obtained by considering successive H2O layers within the atmospheric profile at Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul, sounding at 16 November 2012 by CHUVA project. Legend describes integrated water columns and total precipitable water, in g.cm-2. Geometrical depths are 180, 360, 550, 960 and 2700 m. Vertical profile of other atmospheric gases remained unchanged. SI units: 1 g.cm-2 = 10 kg.m-2.
Within intervals 5-7 μm, 14-16 μm and beyond λ = 26 μm, the strong absorption allows for constant TB0 even for thicknesses lower than 150 m; thus, a water column of 1 g.m-2 is enough to reach a TB spectrum close to constant TB0. It is also seen that irradiance within R2 is strongly dependent on precipitable water. The remarkable point is that TB0 value is very close to thermodynamic temperature of the first layer (in this case, Ta = 293 K), which in turn should be close to screen temperature Tscr. Santa Maria is located in Southern Brazil (with warm temperature and fully humid climate according to Köppen classification); profiles of Amazonian region (with higher water vapor concentrations) should reinforce these characteristics.
It is concluded that DLF0 can be partitioned in three well defined spectral intervals: R1: (λ ≤ 7.5 μm); R2:(7.5 < λ ≤ 14 μm); R3:(λ > 14 μm). At least for mid-latitude and tropical atmospheres with precipitable water column w ≥ 1 g.cm-2, regions R1 and R3 are fitted by a blackbody spectrum with temperature Ta representative of surface boundary layer (expectedly, screen value Tscr). Irradiance in region R2 is produced by H2O continuum and O3 absorption/emission (with slight, if any, contribution of CO2 bands) and seems mainly relied to variations of precipitable water. These conclusions suggest a model assessing DLF0 irradiance by simply adding contributions of regions R1, R2, R3. Regions R1 to R3 correspond to fractions f1, f2, f3 (f1 + f2 + f3 = 1) of blackbody radiation at temperature Ta, with spectral region R2 having an emissivity ɛ2 < 1, such that
Equations (3) and (4) provide the basic model for estimating atmospheric emissivity ɛa. Hereafter the model will be labeled OLD0 (Onda Longa Descendente = Downward Longwave, in Portuguese). It depends on fraction f2 (which is dependent on Ta) and on mean emissivity in region R2; this last is related to vertical profile of water vapor and temperature, but essentially should be a function of precipitable water w and at a less extent of stratospheric O3 contribution (better transmitted in dryer atmospheres). As a matter of fact, when w > 1 g.cm-2 the emission by CO2 and other gases do not actually contribute to DLF0 within R1 and R3 spectral regions. In such atmospheres, the key for DLF0 assessment by satellite sensors would depend essentially on w assessment and on proper retrieval of near-ground temperature.
2.1. Model parameterization
Fraction f2(T) refers to a blackbody spectrum and is easily estimated by integration of Planck's function πB(λ,T) within interval R2: (7.5-14 μm), divided by σT4. Earth-atmosphere temperatures lie mostly in interval T: (183-353 K), within which f2 is fairly well fitted by a second-degree polynomial (determination coefficient r2 = 0.9981):
Cucumo et al. (2006) found similar result assuming an atmospheric window δλ: (8-14 μm). Concerning emissivity in R2, four Brazilian stations located in different climates were considered: Porto Alegre (POA, Köppen class Cfa), Brasilia (BRB, class Aw), Manaus (MNS, class Af) and Petrolina (PTR, class Bsh). Their location and climate characteristics are described in Tables 1 and 2. Spectral fluxes in region R2 were assessed applying SBDART to 243 atmospheric profiles during year 2006 (RAOB stations in Table 1) and divided by irradiance f2 σ Ta4, assuming the lower-level temperature value TRAOB as proxy of Ta. Lower layers of atmospheric profiles have poor resolution (about 500 m) but allow reliable w estimation; in addition, DLF0 spectrum within R2 is smoothly w-dependent so that downward R2-fluxes may be described with simple algorithms. Figure 4 illustrates results for atmospheric conditions corresponding to a wide variety of situations (winter and summer in four different climates, covering water columns from 0.5 to 5.5 g.cm-2). A polynomial fit provides the expression (w in g.cm-2)
with standard deviation lower than 0.02 for difference δɛ between calculated and fitted values. The close concentration of points along function described by Eq. (6) suggests a rather weak dependence on temperature and water vapor profile. Hereafter, it will be assumed close coherence of ɛ2 with water column only.
Locations in Brazil and abroad providing surface and atmospheric data for this paper. RAOB stations do not provide DLF. G: solar irradiance. Tscr (station), Trad (radiosonde): near ground temperature. Providers in Data Source: see Acknowledgements section.
Basic key for definition of main Köppen climates. Adapted from Kottek et al. (2006). More details in: Alvares et al. (2014). Tmin = coldest month temperature. Rainfall: Rann = annual, Rmin = in driest month, Rth = variable threshold, Rsmin = min in summer, Rsmax = max in summer, Rwmin = min in winter, Rwmax = max in winter.
Mean emissivity ɛ2 as a function of precipitable water. SBDART was applied to 243 profiles over four sites in 2006 (RAOB - Radiosonde Observation stations in Table 1).
3. Data Sets and Procedures for Model Validation
Five sounding stations contributed to model development (see Figs. 3 and 4). Surface data and sounding profiles of 22 sites (Brazil and abroad) were used for validation.
Table 1 summarizes information about data sources, including Köppen climatic classification (Kottek et al., 2006). Geographical distribution is shown in Fig. 5, illustrating the global scale of stations data. Table 2 shortly describes Köppen criterion for the first two characters, related to temperature and rainfall; the third character in climatic label includes additional details described in Alvares et al. (2014). Brazilian stations cover Tropical, Arid and Warm temperate climates, and so do the foreign stations (exception: US stations Penn State and Bondville are classified as Snow, colder climate). It is interesting to note that geographical distribution of stations within Brazil implies dimensions as large as Lisbon-Moscow distance in Europe, displaying multiple climates except Snow and Desert.
The radiosonde data (RAOB) are collected at Altitude Meteorological Stations maintained by the Department of Air Space Control (EMA - DECEA). Only the 12Z time slot was used in this work.
Daily cycle of solar radiation helped to choose clear-sky situations, as described below in this section. Brazilian SONDA radiometric network has information on DLF and solar radiation observed at the surface from a PIR model pygeometer (Eppley) and a CM11 model pyranometer (Kipp & Zonen), respectively. The quality control applied to the data of these stations is the same as for BSRN (Baseline Solar Radiation Network).
Manacapuru station is located at about 100 km from Manaus-AM. DLF and solar radiation data were collected as part of the GoAmazon 2014/5 campaign (Green Ocean Amazon, Martin et al., 2016) and are available on the ARM website. ARM obtains information on solar and thermal radiation through a platform called SKYRAD, measuring the downward components of radiation every minute. This platform measures solar radiation with a PSP (Precision Spectral Pyranometer) with Eppley Model V1 ventilator, and DLF with a PIR (Precision Infrared Radiometer) with Kipp & Zonen Model 2-AP automatic solar tracker and Eppley Model V1 ventilator (Andreas et al., 2018).
Santa Rita do Passa Quatro station was located in a sugarcane plantation area, supported by EMBRAPA (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation). Global solar radiation data was obtained by a CM6B pyranometer (Kipp & Zonen) and long-wave radiation was measured by a CG1 model pygeometer (Kipp & Zonen). Data are half-hour means.
SURFRAD stations (Surface Radiation Budget Observation network, Augustine et al., 2000) are also part of the BSRN project. The network uses an Eppley PSP pyranometer for solar radiation and a PIR (Eppley) model pyrgeometer for DLF.
Variables Tscr, DLF and G had 1-min frequency (excepting Santa Rita do Passa Quatro). Concerning precipitable water, CHUVA, SURFRAD and ARM sites provided also sounding profiles; for other locations, sounding data were obtained at the University of Wyoming site. For Santa Rita do Passa Quatro (with no closer radiosonde launching), precipitable water was estimated following Prata (1996) algorithm. CHUVA, SURFRAD and ARM exhibit soundings, Tscr e DLF together at the same experimental site. In case of multiple daily soundings, 12 UTC profile was chosen.
Concerning validation of the model by comparison with “ground truth”, it is worthwhile to assess its dependence on atmospheric variables. Eqs. (5) and (6) provide the parameters f2 and ɛ2 for estimating DLF0 with the model OLD0 (Eq. (4)). Assuming that fluctuations δT and δw are not too high during a time interval and measures are placed not too far between them, Eq. (6) shows that relative fluctuations of DLF0 (at constant T or w) for OLD0 algorithm are
Deviations may be associated to uncertainty in definition of a “near surface temperature” Ta and “local column of water vapor” w obtained from radiosonde or satellite retrieval. For typical values w = 2.5 g.cm-2 and T = 298 K we have DLF0 (OLD0) = 340 W.m-2. From Eqs. (7) and (8) we find β = -0.00054 + 0.0134, showing that the second term of sum in Eq. (7) is largely predominant. Thus, deviations of Ta estimates with average <δT> = +1 K imply in DLF0 overestimation of about 1-2%. On the other hand, contribution of precipitable water exhibits γ = +0.055: thence, δw ~ +0.5 g.cm-2 induces overestimation of about 3%. This is a delicate matter, since daily changes of water column might be large. Nevertheless, pyrgeometer may show about 5% error in DLF measurements (Wang and Dickinson, 2013), be 10-15 W.m-2. These facts suggest that errors inherent to OLD0 model may be of the same order than uncertainty of surface instruments themselves. The actual issue in DLF0 data seems to be a reliable diagnosis of clear-sky situation (in order to eliminate cloud influence). We used simultaneous solar irradiance G for helping in this matter (thus, OLD0 validation was constrained to daytime intervals).
OLD0 algorithm was validated against surface data of 22 stations described in Table 1 and Fig. 4. Daytime data included at least one atmospheric profile. Precipitable water w for 12 UTC profile was assumed for the whole day. It was assumed Ta (model) = Tscr (station screen measure). In order to perform better comparisons between OLD0 and DLF ground data, a suitable day should present (during a long-time interval) situations as far as possible compatible with clear-sky situations. Solar irradiance G was used as indicator of such situations. All 22 stations furnished one-minute G(t) data, and a clear-sky model G0(t) (Ceballos, 2000) was considered as reference. The fluctuating difference dG(t) = G - G0 was smoothed with an 11-min moving average DG(t). The moving standard deviation SG(t) over eleven data was also calculated. The choice of days and validation intervals followed a “Clear Longwave Criterion” (hereafter CLW0). It required (1) G(t) > 50 W.m-2 (instants not too close to start or end of daily period); (2) deviation |dG| < 50 W.m-2 (in order to prevent larger deviations from model G0 associated to aerosol or clouds), together with (3) SG(t) < 4 W.m-2 (indicating small fluctuations in short time intervals). At list in principle, condition (3) prevents cumulus presence. Finally, (4) conditions 1 to 3 should be observed during more than 240 min (4 h) in that day (this time interval helps in the choice of a predominantly clear-sky day). CLW0 limits are empirical, subject to reformulation according to available data and/or atmospheric modelling which include, for instance, cirrus effects.
Figure 6 illustrates results for one day in Brasilia, with more than 240 min required by CLW0 criterion. The left figure includes the ratio GG = G/G0 (red/black points). This fraction must tend to values close to unity for clear-sky conditions. We see that CLW0 situations (black points) happen during a rather long interval, with smooth evolution of shortwave flux G. On the right, black and blue boxes show CLW0 limits for differences G = G - G0 (orange for original values and black for 11-sized moving average) and the moving average of standard deviation, S(t) (11-sized sample, in blue). Green box defines a bound |DLF - OLD0| < 30 W.m-2. During the “suitable interval”, deviation of measured DLF from DLF0 (OLD0) amounts only a few W.m-2. In the following, the CLW0 criterion holds for defining days with “clear-sky working conditions” for data collection for OLD0 validation.
(left) Daily evolution of relevant parameters at Brasilia, 01 July 2009: temperature (10*t °C, magenta), solar irradiances G (measured, black) and G0 (clear-sky estimated, orange), longwave fluxes DLF (measured) and estimated DLF0 (OLD0) in green. Ratio 1000*G/G0 (red + black) is illustrative as clearness index; superimposed black points indicate CLW0 situations. (right) Differences between measurements and models: OLD0 - DLF (green), δG = G0 - G (orange); moving average of δG +50 (black); moving standard deviation of δG + 100 (blue). CLW0 criterion tested during 10 h (within 12 UTC ± 5). Green box bounds differences |DLF-OLD0| < 30.
Given the set of deviations δE between model and measurements in a set of N clear-sky events, model performance was evaluated by four parameters: mean deviation (bias) MBE, standard deviation STD, mean squared error RMSE and mean absolute deviation MAE, calculated as follows
Note that for a moderately high number N it is RMSE2 ≈ MBE2 + STD2.
4. Performance of Model OLD0: Results and Discussion
Figure 7 illustrates some results of OLD0 for Brazilian locations using instant Tscr and 12 GMT precipitable water values (provided by radiosonde). Hundreds and even thousands of instants were selected during one year following CLW0 criterion (see Table 3). They are close to 1:1 relationship with measured fluxes. Better estimations are obtained for instants closer to sounding routine (12 UTC), presumably due to instantly better w estimates. Points shifted towards higher measured values may be due to cloudy conditions not detected by CLW0 criterion (for instance persistent cirrus, or even fair weather cumulus fields) which enhance DLF fluxes. From Eqs. (7-8), we could expect errors of about 4-5% associated to δT = 1 °C and δw = 0.05 g.cm-2, that is about 15 W.m-2; observed deviations δE = DLF0(OLD0) - DLF0(measure) are strongly bounded by about ±20 W.m-2. For the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Barbaro et al. (2010) have reported a difference of about +20 W.m-2 between all-days mean <DLF> and mean <DLF0>; it can be expected that overcast days present appreciably higher differences.
Application of OLD0 to four Brazilian sites, based on observed Tscr and w (radiosonde 12 UTC). All detected clear-sky situations in the year (CLW0 criterion). Red dots correspond to time close to radiosonde schedule (11 to 13 UTC).
Figure 8 illustrates OLD0 behavior in five countries, all with temperate climate; they include all cases detected by CLW0 during one year. Figures 7 and 8 suggest a satisfactory performance of OLD0 model within and outside Brazil. Table 3 resumes performance of OLD0 model and five current algorithms for 22 worldwide distributed stations. Prata (1996), Brutsaert (1975), Swinbank (1963) and Brunt (1932) are widely mentioned in meteorological applications. Model A of Dilley and O'Brien (1998) was considered.
Comparison of OLD0 (modeled) against DLF0 (measured) in stations of Germany, France, USA, Israel, Japan.
Performance of OLD0 and other five algorithms, showing mean deviation (bias MBE) and its spreading (standard deviation STD). Stations details in Table 1. Np: number of clear-sky instants (CLW0 criterion). Adopted w: 12 UTC sounding.
Table 3 shows observed MEB and STD for various models over 22 sites, their mean values <MEB>, <STD> and also the mean MEB*, STD* obtained by excluding cases outside interval <MEB> ±2 <STD> (denoted by italics in the table). It is seen that performance of Dilley & O'Brien model becomes significantly better; no further analysis will be performed here about outsider cases. There is a fair fit of OLD0 estimates to measured DLF0 over a worldwide region (South and North America, Europe, two locations in Asia and three in Africa and Oceania). Bias lies below 6 W.m-2 (except in two sites) and standard deviation about is 12 W.m-2 or less; for typical DLF0≈ 350 W m-2, they amount 1.7% and less than 3.4% respectively. OLD0 validation yields bias MBE and spread STD compatible with error expected for (Ta, w) and uncertainty of measured DLF. It is worthwhile to note that, as far as accuracy of validation depends on proper choice of “clear-sky status” situation, CLW0 criterion appears as a valuable tool for this purpose.
It is seen that all six models have typical STD ≈ 10 W.m-2 (except Swinbank, which is based on Tscr only). OLD0 algorithm exhibits better performance on the mean. Dilley & O'Brien, Prata and Brutsaert have similar behavior, with frequent DLF underestimation for the first one and frequent overestimation for the others (expectedly similar). On the mean, Swinbank tends to overestimate and Brunt to underestimate DLF0 with |MBE| > 10 W.m-2. It is interesting to note that Brunt shows better performance over Brazil.
The results suggest that the algorithm for window emissivity ɛ2 (Eq. (8)) is closely representative of an extended set of atmospheres, actually being a function on w (independently of atmospheric profile) when w > 1 g.cm-2. Such emissivity affects blackbody irradiance in the R2 region, which spectral width depends on temperature Ta. Of course, Eq. (8) is an approximation subject to further improvement, especially for low values of water column.
5. Conclusions
Detailed analysis of downward longwave irradiance for several atmospheric profiles shows that DLF0 exhibits three distinct spectral behaviors controlled by H2O absorption/emission. They are: a) R1: (λ < 7.5 μm) shows blackbody behavior with near-surface temperature Ta; b) within an atmospheric window R2:(7.5 < λ < 14 μm), mean emissivity ɛ2 related to the same blackbody is a function of precipitable water w only; c) R3:(λ > 14 μm) behaves as R1 if w >1 g.cm-2. This spectral behavior allows to build the simple but physically robust model OLD0 described by Eqs. (4), (5) and (8). It is a function of near-surface temperature Ta and total precipitable water w, independent of atmospheric profile. The weight of emissivity ɛ2 is controlled by the R2 spectral width, which depends on blackbody spectrum at temperature Ta.
Concerning proper validation of OLD0 model against DLF measurements, a “CLW0 criterion” applied to one-minute shortwave values G(t) allows detection of clear-sky-like events. Comparison with one-year data of a worldwide set of 22 stations (7 in Brazil, 5 in United States, 5 in Europe, 3 in Asia and Oceania, 2 in Africa) showed deviations δE = DLF0(OLD0) - DLF0 (measure) mainly bounded by ±20 W.m-2 (6% of a typical value DLF0 = 340 W.m-2), compatible with radiometer error itself. The averages of 22 mean values MBE and STD were <MBE> = 1.1 W.m-2 and <STD> = 9.1 W.m-2 without any adaptation of OLD0 to local climate. Such low value <MBE> could hide a statistical compensation of high discrepancies with DLF0 measures; however, the average <|MBE|> amounts 2.8 W.m-2 only. These results suggest that OLD0 model is accurate in a large variety of climates provided that w >1 g.cm-2. DLF0 estimation using OLD0 is impacted in 1-2% by errors δT ≈ +1 K and 3% if δw ~ +0.5 g.cm-2. As far as accuracy also depends on proper choice of “clear-sky status” situation, CLW0 criterion appears as a valuable tool for diurnal estimations.
In general, behavior of OLD0 model shows higher stability (lower bias and at least similar STD) when compared with some currently used algorithms. This can be due to explicit use of the variable “precipitable water” in lieu of proxy variables as near surface humidity or vapor pressure. Failing meteorological network data, variables (Ta, w) can be provided by Numerical Circulation Models (Figueroa et al., 2016) or retrieved by proper sensors as MODIS in Terra-Aqua satellites (Menzel et al., 2002) and (expectedly) ABI in GOES-16. Being a simple as well as low-cost algorithm, OLD0 may be an accurate proxy of DLF0 in numerical circulation models and SRB estimation.
6. Data Access
Brazilian data: DECEA (Departamento de Controle do Espaço Aéreo, RAOB stations at Manaus, Brasília, Porto Alegre and Santa Maria). CHUVA/GOAMAZON projects (Manacapuru station. SONDA (Brasilia, Petrolina, Curitiba and Florianópolis sites). CT-Hidro Project (Santa Rita do Passa Quatro, site held by EMBRAPA-Meio Ambiente and University of São Paulo). UFRJ (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, experimental site at Department of Meteorology, LabMiM - Laboratório de Micrometeorologia e Modelagem). Brazilian and worldwide networks: BSRN, ARM, SURFRAD.
Acknowledgements
This work is a product of collaborative activity with Graduate Course of Meteorology at CPTEC-INPE; co-authors were partial or totally granted by fellowships of CNPq (Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development) and CAPES (Coordination of Superior Level Staff Improvement) during their graduate studies. The authors are also thankful to Dr. Osvaldo Cabral (EMBRAPA - Meio Ambiente) as well as to Dr. Edson Pereira Marques Filho of LabMiM (Laboratório de Micrometeorologia e Modelagem, UFRJ), for kindly providing data of Santa Rita do Passa Quatro and Rio de Janeiro, respectively.
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