The BRICS and Brazilian public opinion: soft balancing or economic strategy?

Fernandes, Ivan Filipe; Freitas, Vinicius Ruiz Albino de; Onuki, Janina

doi:10.1590/0034-7329202100212

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Article • Rev. bras. polít. int 64 (2) • 2021 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-7329202100212 copy

The BRICS and Brazilian public opinion: soft balancing or economic strategy?

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

The paper examines Brazilians’ attitudes toward the BRICS, verifying whether the soft balancing strategy finds support on public opinion, by using survey data from the Brazil, the Americas and the World Project. Results indicate that the attitudes toward the BRICS countries are similar to those toward other relevant partners. Moreover, attitudes toward the BRICS are not associated with a rejection of the US, which points to the possibility of soft-balancing having support in national public opinion.

Keywords:
BRICS; Soft balancing; Public opinion

	2010	2014	2019
Argentina	40.5 (39.1-41.8)		44.5 (43.1-46.0)
USA	51.5 (50.0-53.0)	59.9 (58.2-61.5)	60.5 (58.9-62.1)
South Africa			41.6 (40.1-43.1)
China	40.9 (39.4-42.3)	51.8 (50.2-53.5)	55.1 (53.6-56.7)
India	25.1 (23.8-26.5)		40.3 (38.9-41.7)
Russia			44.0 (42.4-45.6)

	2010		2014		2019
	N	%	n	%	n	%
Argentina
Friendship	627	31.4	626	33.3	625	33.8
Partnership	589	29.5	479	25.5	564	30.5
Rivalry	492	24.6	484	25.7	299	16.2
Threat	108	5.4	132	7.0	156	8.4
NS/NR	184	9.2	160	8.51	205	11.09
United States
Friendship	765	38.3	716	38.1	652	35.3
Partnership	828	41.4	635	33.8	663	35.9
Rivalry	119	6.0	136	7.2	119	6.4
Threat	103	5.2	210	11.2	248	13.4
NS/NR	185	9.3	184	9.8	167	9.0
China
Friendship	627	31.4	562	29.9	563	30.5
Partnership	847	42.4	659	35.0	709	38.3
Rivalry	154	7.7	155	8.2	122	6.6
Threat	120	6.0	225	12.0	233	12.6
NS/NR	252	12.6	280	14.9	222	12.0
India
Friendship			675	35.89	654	35.37
Partnership			572	30.41	600	32.45
Rivalry			93	4.94	112	6.06
Threat			100	5.32	158	8.55
NS/NR			441	23.44	325	17.58
Russia
Friendship					456	24.66
Partnership					570	30.83
Rivalry					166	8.98
Threat					359	19.42
NS/NR					298	16.11
South Africa
Friendship					763	41.27
Partnership					572	30.94
Rivalry					94	5.08
Threat					141	7.63
NS/NR					279	15.09

	2010		2014		2018
which country you trust the most
	n	%	n	%	n	%
USA	825	41.3	664	35.3	612	33.1
China	266	13.3	257	13.7	238	12.9
Russia	40	2.0	85	4.5	82	4.4
France	296	14.8	175	9.3	274	14.8
UK/England	64	3.2	81	4.3	231	12.5
None	166	8.3	235	12.5	100	5.4
NS/NR	297	14.9	299	15.9	195	10.6
Others	46	2.3	85	4.5	117	6.3
which country you trust the least
	n	%	n	%	n	%
USA	430	21.5	461	24.5	529	28.6
China	415	20.8	262	13.9	330	17.9
Russia	429	21.5	548	29.1	564	30.5
France	73	3.7	35	1.9	46	2.5
UK/England	131	6.6	116	6.2	75	4.1
None	94	4.7	89	4.7	41	2.2
NS/NR	396	19.8	251	13.4	165	8.9
Others	32	1.6	119	6.3	99	5.4

	China				United States
	2014		2019		2014		2019
	n	%	n	%	n	%	n	%
Trust	672	35.7	559	30.2	775	41.2	569	30.8
Distrust	948	50.4	1147	62.0	979	52.1	1161	62.8
NS/NR	210	11.2	143	7.7	93	4.9	119	6.4
Indifferent (spontaneous)	51	2.7			34	1.8
Admiration	1046	55.6	1150	62.2	1250	66.5	1184	64.0
Contempt	526	28.0	444	24.0	397	21.1	448	24.2
NS/NR	196	10.4	255	13.8	117	6.2	217	11.7
Indifferent (spontaneous)	113	6.0			117	6.2

	2010		2014		2019
	n	%	n	%	n	%
Emergence of China as a global power
Serious threat	601	30.1			740	40.0
Important threat, but not serious	529	26.5			528	28.6
Not especially important threat	399	20.0			410	22.2
Not a threat (spontaneous)	284	14.2			6	0.3
NS/NR	187	9.35			165	8.9
Chinese Economy being as important as the USA's
Positive	1041	52.05	1121	59.6	1104	59.7
Negative	516	25.8	560	29.8	557	30.1
NS/NR	220	11.0	185	9.8	163	8.8
Indifferent	223	11.15	15	0.8	25	1.4

2014
	n	%
Force capable of balancing world power	708	37.7
Embarrassing alliance	658	35.0
NS/NR	515	27.4
Force capable of balancing world power
Somewhat agree	698	37.8
Strongly agree	395	21.4
Neither agree nor disagree (spontaneous)	10	0.5
Somewhat disagree	286	15.5
Strongly disagree	289	15.6
NR	9	0.5
NS	162	8.8
Embarrassing alliance
Somewhat agree	535	28.9
Strongly agree	283	15.3
Neither agree nor disagree (spontaneous)	11	0.6
Somewhat disagree	426	23.0
Strongly disagree	396	21.4
NR	11	0.6
NS	187	10.1

2014-BRICS	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	2019-BRICS	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Gender (0-women; 1-men)	1.438			1.271	Gender (0-women; 1-men)	1.480			1.349
Gender (0-women; 1-men)	0.153 ^* ***** p<0.001)			0.142 ^* * p<0.05	Gender (0-women; 1-men)	0.153 ^* ***** p<0.001)			0.147 ^ p<0.01
Age: 30 to 39 years	0.581			0.565	Age in Years	0.984			0.987
	0.081 ^* ***** p<0.001)			0.083 ^* ***** p<0.001)		0.004 ^* ***** p<0.001)			0.004 ^* ***** p<0.001)
40 to 49 years	0.703			0.720
	0.105 ^* * p<0.05			0.113 ^* * p<0.05
50 to 59 years	0.473			0.476
	0.084 ^* ***** p<0.001)			0.088 ^* ***** p<0.001)
60⁺ + p<0.1 years	0.424			0.486
	0.084 ^* ***** p<0.001)			0.101 ^* ***** p<0.001)
Education:5th Grade (Elementary School)	1.401			1.300	Years of Schooling	1.069			1.034
Education:5th Grade (Elementary School)	0.245 ⁺ + p<0.1			0.235	Years of Schooling	0.015 ^* ***** p<0.001)			0.016 ^* * p<0.05
High School	1.489			1.192
(Incomplete & Complete)	0.242 ^* * p<0.05			0.204
Higher Education (Incomplete)	2.741			1.987
Higher Education (Incomplete)	0.638 ^* ***** p<0.001)			0.490 ^ p<0.01
Higher Education (Complete)	2.731			1.987
Higher Education (Complete)	0.640 ^* ***** p<0.001)			0.490 ^ p<0.01
1-2 Minimum Wage	1.101			1.018	Log Income Reais (BRL)	1.047			1.040
	0.146			0.140	Log Income Reais (BRL)	0.021 ^* * p<0.05			0.021⁺ + p<0.1
2-5 MW	1.194			1.035
	0.201			0.181
More than 5 MW	1.932			1.636
	0.542 ^* * p<0.05			0.476⁺ + p<0.1
NA/NR(Income)	1.462			1.473
	0.694			0.732
Occupation: Private sector	0.871			0.868	PEA (1-yes; 0-no)	1.050			1.027
Occupation: Private sector	0.195			0.199		0.132			0.134
Occupation: Liberal professionals	0.909			0.882
Occupation: Liberal professionals	0.205			0.205
Occupation: unemployed	0.745			0.740
Occupation: unemployed	0.211			0.216
Occupation: Not-PEA	0.939			0.908
Occupation: Not-PEA	0.226			0.226
Election: 1 PSDB (AN)		1.101		0.996	Election: 1-PSL (JB)		1.023		0.954
		0.133		0.126			0.137		0.135
Election: 2 Did not vote		0.81		0.729	Election: 2 Null/Abstention		1.047		1.058
		0.117		0.111 ^* * p<0.05	Election: 2 Null/Abstention		0.147		0.157
Election: 3 NK/NA		0.836		0.847	Election:3 Other		1.418		1.379
		0.191		0.201			0.244 ^* * p<0.05		0.252⁺ + p<0.1
Election: 4 Other		1.173		0.936
		0.254		0.211
Ideology: Center		1.401		1.387	Ideology: Center		1.441		1.243
		0.244⁺ + p<0.1		0.250⁺ + p<0.1			0.216 ^* * p<0.05		0.197
Ideology: Right wing		1.215		1.310	Ideology: Right-wing		1.338		1.321
		0.201		0.225			0.199+		0.208+
Ideology: No ideological position		0.500		0.616	Ideology: No ideological position		0.759		0.892
Ideology: No ideological position		0.105 ^* ***** p<0.001)		0.135^* * p<0.05	Ideology: No ideological position		0.125+		0.156
Cultural Nationalism (0-nationalist, 1-cosmopolitan)		1.755		1.534	Cultural Nationalism (0-nationalist, 1-cosmopolitan)		1.798		1.383
Cultural Nationalism (0-nationalist, 1-cosmopolitan)		0.185 ^* ***** p<0.001)		0.169 ^* ***** p<0.001)	Cultural Nationalism (0-nationalist, 1-cosmopolitan)		0.192 ^* ***** p<0.001)		0.161 ^ p<0.01
Nationalism toward immigrants (0- nationalist, 1-cosmopolitan)		1.672		1.493	Nationalism toward immigrants (0-nationalist, 1-cosmopolitan)		1.299		1.199
		0.194 ^* ***** p<0.001)		0.180 ^* ***** p<0.001)			0.143 ^* * p<0.05		0.140
viewNEG(past/future) (0-other,1-negative)		0.945		1.013	viewNEG(past) (0-other, 1-negative)		1.078		1.211
viewNEG(past/future) (0-other,1-negative)		0.106		0.119	viewNEG(past) (0-other, 1-negative)		0.115		0.139+
Pro-Free-Trade			1.000	1.001	Pro-Free-Trade			0.998	0.995
			0.015	0.016				0.011	0.011
Pro-Globalization			1.025	1.006	Pro-Globalization			1.030	1.014
			0.011 ^* * p<0.05	0.011				0.009 ^ p<0.01	0.010
Barriers (0-other, 1-contrary)			0.945	0.862	Barriers (0-other, 1-contrary)			1.647	1.534
			0.092	0.089	Barriers (0-other, 1-contrary)			0.162 ^* ***** p<0.001)	0.159 ^* ***** p<0.001)
Investment (1:More-Less-benefit)			1.226	1.012	Investment (0-other, 1-infavor)			2.241	1.852
			0.167	0.146	Investment (0-other, 1-infavor)			0.267 ^* ***** p<0.001)	0.236 ^* ***** p<0.001)
Investment (2:Greater-Benefit)			1.878	1.498
			0.254 ^* ***** p<0.001)	0.218 ^ p<0.01
Investment (3:NK/NA)			0.415	0.722
			0.166 ^* * p<0.05	0.303
N	1,881	1,881	1,881	1,881	N	1,789	1,849	1,849	1,789

	2014: 1	2	3	4	2019: 5	6	7	8	9
Favorable Opinion: China	1.004			1.005	1.000			1.00	1.00
	0.002 ^* * p<0.05			0.002 ^ p<0.01	0.002 ^* * p<0.05			0.002	0.002
Trust: China	1.206				1.190
	0.163				0.150
Admiration: China	1.119				1.220
	0.157				0.150
Economics-Ascension: China	1.172				1.310				1.400
	0.142				0.150 ^* * p<0.05				0.162 ^ p<0.01
Favorable Opinion: USA		1.000				1.610			1.38
		0.002				0.282 ^ p<0.01			0.256⁺ + p<0.1
Trust: EUA		0.945				1.12
		0.117				0.140
Admiration: USA		1.143				1.030
		0.161				0.130
Relationship: BR-USA		1.201				1.160
		0.161				0.150
Relationship: BR-India			1.572	1.537			1.150
			0.196 ^* ***** p<0.001)	0.217 ^ p<0.01			0.170
Relationship: BR-China			1.426	1.229			1.330		1.25
			0.172 ^ p<0.01	0.166			0.179 ^* * p<0.05		0.160⁺ + p<0.1
Relationship: BR-Russia							1.130
							0.140
Relationship: BR-South Africa							1.110
							0.180
Favorable Opinion: India								1.000
								0.000
Favorable Opinion: Russia								1.000
								0.000
Favorable Opinion: South Africa								1.01	1.01
Favorable Opinion: South Africa								0.002 ^* ***** p<0.001)	0.002 ^* ***** p<0.001)
N	1497	1628	1881	1497	1674	1700	1789	1567	1620

Centro de Estudos Globais da Universidade de Brasília Centro de Estudos Globais, Instituto de Relações Internacionais, Universidade de Brasília, Campus Universitário Darcy Ribeiro, Brasília - DF - 70910-900 - Brazil, Tel.: + 55 61 31073651 - Brasília - DF - Brazil
E-mail: rbpi@unb.br

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