Impact of hydroclimatic changes on the operation of water resources systems: a case study of the Cantareira Water Production System

Impacto das mudanças hidroclimáticas na operação de sistemas de recursos hídricos: um estudo de caso do Sistema de Produção de Água Cantareira

ABSTRACT

This study explores the critical issue of climate change and its implications for the Cantareira Water Production System (CWPS), a vital water supply source for the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP). Using data from the CMIP6 GFDL-CM4 model, the research assesses how climate change significantly affects the hydrological cycle, thereby influencing water availability and increasing the vulnerability of the CWPS to periods of water scarcity and instability. Water demand and the operation of the Santa Inês Pumping Station (SIPS) indicate that the transition from the observed scenario to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios results in a marked reduction in the percentage of the water supply considered normal, dropping significantly from 82.3% to 25.2% and 14.1%, respectively. The findings shed light on the challenges faced by CWPS in the context of climate change, offering valuable insights for the development of strategies and adaptive measures to ensure water security for MRSP. This study underscores the urgency of addressing climate change's potential consequences on water resources systems to safeguard the future of one of Brazil's most populous regions.

Keywords:
Water allocation; Water scarcity; CMIP6; Hydroclimate impact