Uncertainty assessment in hydrodynamic modeling of floods generated by dam break

Tschiedel, Arthur da Fontoura; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de

doi:10.1590/2318-0331.231820170074

Arthur da Fontoura Tschiedel

Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil

Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Paiva

Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil

E-mails: arthur.tschiedel@gmail.com (AFT), rodrigocdpaiva@gmail.com (RCDP)

Authors contributions Arthur da Fontoura Tschiedel: Elaboration of all the stages that involved the construction of this work.

Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Paiva: Orientation in all the stages that involved the construction of this work and final revision of the article.

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Figure 1
General Approach of Applied Methodology.

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Figure 2
Study Areas.

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Figure 3
Profiles of Study Areas.

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Figure 4
Cross-Sections of Upstream and Downstream.

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Figure 5
Differences between DEMs (7 km from the Canastra dam).

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Figure 6
Differences between DEMs downstream of the Lomba do Sabão Dam.

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Figure 7
Volumes for the Lomba do Sabão Dam.

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Figure 8
Volumes for the Canastra Dam.

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Figure 9
Spatial progress of the analyzes: (a) Hydrograms and grouping of variables of interest for a given cross-section; (b) Statistical analysis by evaluation parameters, by section; (c) Evaluation parameters.

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Figure 10
Hydrograms obtained from topography variation at 7.2 km from the dam.

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Figure 11
Hydrograms obtained from the variation of elevation-volume curve of the reservoir at 7.2 km from the dam.

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Figure 12
Hydrograms obtained from variation of the Breach configuration at 7.2 km from the dam.

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Figure 13
Hydrograms obtained from the Manning coefficient variation at 7.2 km from the dam.

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Figure 14
Hydrograms obtained from the variation of the equation at 7.2 km from the dam.

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Figure 15
Variations in Peak Flow.

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Figure 16
Variations in Peak Time.

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Figure 17
Variation coefficients for peak flow of the Lomba do Sabão Dam.

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Figure 18
Variation coefficients for peak flow of the Canastra Dam.

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Figure 19
Coefficients of variation for Peak Flow Time of the Lomba do Sabão Dam.

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Figure 20
Variation coefficients for Canastra Dam peak flow time.

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Figure 21
Variation Coefficients for Maximum Depth in Lomba do Sabão Dam.

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Figure 22
Variation coefficients for Maximum Depth of Canastra Dam.

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Figure 23
Variation coefficients for Maximum Velocity of the Lomba do Sabão Dam.

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Figure 24
Variation coefficients for Maximum Velocity of the Canastra Dam.

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Table 1
History of disruptions since the 2000s.

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Table 2
Manning coefficients used in dam rupture studies.

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Table 3
Characteristics of breach formation parameters.

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Table 4
Downstream topography.

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Table 5
Manning coefficients used.

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Table 6
Breach configurations adopted.

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Table 7
Number of additional scenarios.

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Table 8
Relation between input data and uncertainties for dam break studies.

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Table 9
Variation coefficients to narow/steep and wide/plane valleys.

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(3)

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(7)

Decade
2000	2010
Rio Verde	Itabirito
Cataguases	Fundão
Miraí	Laranjal do Jari
Espora	Herculano
Apertadinho	Camocim
Algodões	Analândia
Camará	Boa Vista do Uru
Nova Lima	Vacaro
	Coronel Sapucaia
	Zampieri
	Buritis

Location	Description	Min	Avarage	Max
Lined or Built-Up Channels	Concrete, for different situations	0.011	0.018	0.027
Lined or Built-Up Channels	Asphalt for various situations	0.013	0.016	0.016
Natural Streams	Clean, straight, full, no rifts or deep pools	0.025	0.030	0.033
	Same as above, but more stones and weeds	0.030	0.035	0.040
	Clean, winding, some pools and shoals	0.033	0.040	0.045
	Clean, winding, some pools and shoals with stones and weeds	0.045	0.050	0.060
	Sluggish reaches, weedy, and deep pools	0.050	0.070	0.080
	Very weedy reaches, deep pools, or floodways with heavy stands of timber and brush	0.070	0.100	0.150
Flood Plains	Pasture with no brush	0.025	0.032	0.050
	Cultivated areas	0.020	0.035	0.050
	Medium to dense brush	0.045	0.085	0.160
	Cleared land with tree stumps and no sprouts	0.030	0.040	0.050
	Light brush and trees	0.035	0.055	0.080
	Heavy stand of timber, few low trees, little undergrowth with flow into branches	0.080	0.100	0.120
	Dense willows, summer, straight.	0.110	0.150	0.200

Dam Type	Average Breach Width	Breach lateral slope	Failure Time (hours)	Agency
Earthen / Rockfill	(1 to 5)h	0 to 45º	0.1 to 1	FERC
	(2 to 5)h		0.1 to 1	NWS
	(0.5 to 5)h		0.1 to 4	USACE
Concrete Gravity	Usually < 0.5L	Vertical	0.1 to 0.3	FERC
	Usually < 0.5L		0.1 to 0.2	NWS
	Multiple Monoliths		0.1 to 0.5	USACE
Concrete Arch	Entire Dam	0 to slope of the natural terrain	<0.1	FERC
	0.8L to L			NWS
	0.8L to L			USACE

Topography	Study Area
Topography	Canastra	Lomba do Sabão
SRTM 30M	X
SRTM_1M	X	X
SRTM_1M_CALHA	X	X
SRTM_1M_CALHA_VANT	X
AW3D_1M	X
MDE_AEROGEO	X
MDE_EXERC	X
LiDAR_SP		X
LiDAR_CP		X

Multiplier Factor (Mf)	Manning Coefficient
	Canastra		Lomba do Sabão
	Main Channel	Other	Main Channel	Other
1	0.075	0.15	0.020	0.030
1.50	NE	NE	0.030	0.045
2.00	0.15	0.30	NE	NE
0.50	0.0375	0.075	NE	NE
1.25	0.09375	0.1875	0.025	0.038
0.75	0.05625	0.1125	0.015	0.023

Dam	BE (m)	DH (m)	Height (m)	Ft (h)	Ang	W (m)
Canastra Dam	548	570.5	22.5	0.1	45º	68
	548	570.5	22.5	0.3	45º	68
	548	570.5	22.5	0.5	45º	68
	548	570.5	22.5	0.5	45º	85
	548	570.5	22.5	0.1	45º	102
Lomba do Sabão Dam	45	56	11	0.3	72º	100
	45	56	11	0.1	72º	100
	45	56	11	0.5	72º	100
	45	56	11	1	72º	100
	45	56	11	0.3	45º	125
	45	56	11	0.3	45º	75
	45	56	11	0.3	45º	50

Input Data	Canastra Dam	Lomba do Sabão Dam
Topography	6	3
Manning Coefficient	4	3
Volume	4	4
Breach	4	6
Total	18	16

Distance of the Dam	Evaluation Parameter	Narrow and steep downstream valleys					Wide and Plane dowstream valleys
Distance of the Dam	Evaluation Parameter	Manning	Breach	Topography	Volume	Model	Manning	Breach	Topography	Volume	Model
Near to Dam (in the first 4 Km)	Peak Flow	Medium	Medium	Low	Medium	Medium	Low	High	Medium	Medium	Medium
	Peak Flow Time	Medium	High	Low	Low	Medium	Low	Medium	Low	Low	Medium
	Depth	Medium	Low	Medium	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	Medium	Low	Medium
	Velocity	High	Medium	Medium	Low	High	Medium	High	Medium	Low	High
Far from Dam (4 to 12 Km)	Peak Flow	High	Low	High	High	Medium	Medium	High	High	Medium	High
	Peak Flow Time	High	Low	Medium	Low	Medium	Medium	High	Medium	Low	High
	Depth	Low	Low	High	Medium	Low	Low	Low	Medium	Low	Low
	Velocity	High	Low	High	Medium	High	Medium	High	High	Low	High

Distance of the Dam	Evaluation Parameter	Narrow and steep downstream valleys					Wide and Plane dowstream valleys
Distance of the Dam	Evaluation Parameter	Manning	Breach	Topography	Volume	Model	Manning	Breach	Topography	Volume	Model
Near to Dam (in the first 4 Km)	Peak Flow	0.222	0.225	0.070	0.214	0.181	0.053	0.312	0.217	0.179	0.178
	Peak Flow Time	0.188	0.354	0.044	0.037	0.104	0.056	0.299	0.070	0.098	0.116
	Depth	0.117	0.097	0.219	0.105	0.036	0.085	0.118	0.163	0.075	0.171
	Velocity	0.377	0.121	0.187	0.077	0.306	0.204	0.432	0.259	0.032	0.423
Far from Dam (4 to 12 Km)	Peak Flow	0.455	0.029	0.302	0.373	0.262	0.180	0.387	0.443	0.274	0.496
	Peak Flow Time	0.448	0.090	0.137	0.081	0.263	0.188	0.366	0.215	0.015	0.471
	Depth	0.024	0.012	0.391	0.164	0.039	0.036	0.040	0.273	0.088	0.057
	Velocity	0.492	0.012	0.387	0.144	0.373	0.275	0.485	0.368	0.050	0.708

[1] E-mails: arthur.tschiedel@gmail.com (AFT), rodrigocdpaiva@gmail.com (RCDP)

Brasil

Brasil

Uncertainty assessment in hydrodynamic modeling of floods generated by dam break

Avaliação de incertezas em simulações hidrodinâmicas de ondas geradas por rompimento de barragens

ABSTRACT