Analysis of the time series of pertussis in Brazil from 2010 to 2019

Abstract

Objectives:

to analyze a decade of spatio-temporal behavior of pertussis in Brazil and its epidemiological characteristics.

Methods:

ecological time series study of pertussis cases and deaths from the Notifable Diseases Information System in Brazil (2010-2019). The method of generalized linear analysis of Prais-Winsten and the Kernel analysis were used.

Results:

32,849 cases were reported, of which 466 (1.42%) evolved to death, with a prevalence of 1.63/100,000 inhabitants and a mortality rate of 0.023/100,000 inhabitants. In the temporal analysis, the cyclical behavior of pertussis was evidenced, with trend variations in the period in 2014. Most cases occurred in children under 1 year of age (60.16%, p<0.01), sex female (55.28%, p=0.066) and white (48.42%, p=0.14). The largest share of deaths was in children aged <1 year (98.07, p<0.01), females (56.01%, p=0.066) and whites (43.78%, p=0.14). In the Kernel of prevalence, the South, Southeast and Northeast regions stood out with high density; while for mortality, the Southeast and Northeast stood out.

Conclusions:

the cyclical behavior of pertussis was observed, with a decreasing trend in recent years and the concentration of cases in children. This reinforces the importance of strengthening the population’s immunization process.

Key words:
Whooping cough; Vaccine-preventable diseases; Spatial analysis