Effect of indices on desertification risk: spatial and hierarchical approach using multinomial logistic regression

Santos, Thiago Costa dos; Teixeira, Adunias dos Santos; Moreira, Luis Clenio Jário; Toma, Raul Shiso

doi:10.5935/1806-6690.20250009

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Scientific Article • Rev. Ciênc. Agron. 56 • 2025 • https://doi.org/10.5935/1806-6690.20250009 copy

Effect of indices on desertification risk: spatial and hierarchical approach using multinomial logistic regression¹ 1 Work extracted from the thesis of the first author presented to the Graduate Program in Soil Science, Federal University of Ceará/UFC

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

Desertification is the degradation process caused by climatic conditions and human activities that results in loss of soil productivity and decline in vegetation growth in the long term. Several indices related to vegetation, soil and climate are used to monitor desertification, but few studies explore qualitative and quantitative aspects of indices on desertification on spatial and hierarchical scale. This study aims to identify and measure indices related to increased risk of desertification on global, local and hierarchical scales using multinomial logistic regression models. Images from TM, ETM+ and OLI sensor from 1997 to 2018 in the end of dry and rainy seasons were used to quantify NDVI, TGSI, albedo, temperature, aridity index, evapotranspiration and precipitation on global spatial scale (Irauçuba Centro Norte) and local spatial scale (Miraíma, Canindé, Irauçuba and Santa Quitéria). GISD was calculated by geometric mean of weighted indices and segmented into 8 classes of susceptibility to desertification (hierarchical scale). The results showed that the best models were obtained on local scale and for the end of the rainy season. Temperature proved to be the most important variable for increased risk of desertification on global, local and hierarchical scales. Therefore, the increase in the risk of desertification in the studied areas is due to human activities of deforestation, overgrazing and fire. These factors contributed to reduction of vegetation cover and increase in temperature, changing the microclimatic, which led to decline in precipitation and worsening of desertification.

Keywords:
Precipitation; Temperature; Deforestation; Microclimate

Index	Formula	Order
NDVI	$\frac{p λ_{4} + p λ_{3}}{p λ_{4} - p λ_{3}}$	1
TGSI	$\frac{(p λ_{3} - p λ_{1})}{p λ_{3 +} p λ_{2 +} p λ_{1}}$	2
Albedo	$\sum_{n = 1}^{6} (p λ_{i} . ω λ_{i})$	3
Precipitation	$\sum_{n = 1}^{6} (Z_{i} / h^{β} i j) / \sum_{i = 1}^{n} (1 / h^{β} i j)$	4
Aridity Index	$\frac{p r}{E T P}$	5
Evapotranspiration	$\frac{3600. L E}{(λ)}$	6
Surface Temperature	$\frac{(K_{2})}{\ln (ε_{0} K_{1}) + 1}$	7

Criterion	Index	Intervals	Weight	Units
Vegetation	NDVI	<=0.3 0.3<NDVI<=0.4 NDVI>0.4	2 1.5 1.0	Dimensionless
Soil	TGSI	-0.01<=TGSI<=0 TGSI>0	1.0 2.0	Dimensionless
Soil	albedo	<=0.1 0.1<albedo<=0.20 albedo>0.20	1 1.5 2	Dimensionless
Climate	aridity index	aridity index <0.1 0.10<= aridity index <1.0	2 1.5	Dimensionless
	precipitation	precipitation <=150 150< precipitation <=300 precipitation >300	2 1.5 1	mm
	evapotranspiration	evapotranspiration <0.41 0.41<= evapotranspiration <=0.55 0.55< evapotranspiration <1	1 1.5 2	mm/h
	temperature	temperature<25.3 °C 25.3 °C <=temperature<=41.5 °C	1 2	Celsius

Class	GISD
Not Affected (NA)	1.17
Potential (P)	1.17 - 1.22
Low Fragile (F3)	1.23 - 1.26
Medium Fragile (F2)	1.27 - 1.32
High Fragile (F1)	1.33 - 1.37
Low Critical (C3)	1.38 - 1.41
Medium Critical (C2)	1.42 - 1.53
High Critical (C1)	>1.53

Area/Period	R² Naelkrk	Classes	Variables	(β)	Probability of Risk (%)
Miraíma (2005ER)	0.897	F1 C1	Temperature	0.171 2.237	54.25 90.35
Canindé (1998ER)	0.904	F2 F1 C2 C1	Temperature	0.286 0.850 1.298 2.137	57.10 70.05 78.55 89.45
Irauçuba (2016ER)	0.855	C1 C2 F2	Temperature	5.588 4.444 4.154	99.63 98.84 98.45
Santa Quitéria (2004ER)	0.870	C3	Albedo	232.5	100
		C2	NDVI Aridity Index Temperature	-32.08 23.8 1.822	~0 100 86.08
		F1	NDVI Albedo Aridity Index Temperature	-16.67 265.39 24.68 1.511	~0 100 100 81.91
		F2	NDVI Albedo Aridity Index Temperature	-16.36 252.37 30.03 1.027	~0 100 100 73.63
Irauçuba Centro Norte (2011ED)	0.788	C1	NDVI Albedo Evapotranspiration Precipitation Temperature	-70.93 196.32 28.53 -30.5 0.867	~0 100 100 42.43 70.41
		C2	NDVI Evapotranspiration Precipitation Temperature	-48.89 20.41 -0.291 0.709	~0 99.99 42.77 67.02
		F2	Evapotranspiration Precipitation Temperature	18.33 -0.285 0.993	99.99 42.92 72.97

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Effect of indices on desertification risk: spatial and hierarchical approach using multinomial logistic regression1 1 Work extracted from the thesis of the first author presented to the Graduate Program in Soil Science, Federal University of Ceará/UFC

ABSTRACT

Effect of indices on desertification risk: spatial and hierarchical approach using multinomial logistic regression¹ 1 Work extracted from the thesis of the first author presented to the Graduate Program in Soil Science, Federal University of Ceará/UFC