Sensitivity analysis of the AquaCrop model for wheat crop in Campos Gerais region, Paraná

Rosa, Stefanie Lais Kreutz; Souza, Jorge Luiz Moretti de; Tsukahara, Rodrigo Yoiti; Kochinski, Edson Giovanni

doi:10.1590/0034-737X202370010004

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Agricultural Engineering • Rev. Ceres 70 (1) • Jan-Feb 2023 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-737X202370010004 copy

Sensitivity analysis of the AquaCrop model for wheat crop in Campos Gerais region, Paraná¹ 1 This work is part of the first author’s Master Dissertation.

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

The use of crop modeling can be useful to understand the interactions between the soil-plant-atmosphere system. The objective of this study was to evaluate sensitivity analysis of the AquaCrop model parameters for wheat crop in the Campos Gerais Region. The varietie tested was TBIO Sinuelo in Castro, Ponta Grossa and Itaberá cities. The analyzed parameters refer to crop phenology, transpiration, biomass production, yield formation, stresses and soil management. The sensitivity analysis was realized varying individually each input parameter in the AquaCrop for the calculation of the Relative Sensitivity Index (SI). The most sensitive parameters of the AquaCrop were: reference harvest index (HI_o); water productivity normalized for evapotranspiration and CO₂ concentration (WP*); crop coefficient when canopy expansion is complete (Kc_TR,x); fertility levels; and maximum canopy cover (CC_x). The higher sensitivity of HI_o and WP* is because they are directly related to two main equations of AquaCrop, linked to the estimates of dry above-ground biomass and yield formation, respectively. The AquaCrop counts WP* reflecting directly on dry above-ground biomass production and on final grain yield. The canopy decline coefficient (CDC) presented considerable sensitivity only in Castro due to the longer duration of the phenological cycle. Fertility levels and saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_sat) in Castro was the least sensitive parameters in the analysis.

Keywords
mathematical modeling; parameters; Triticum aestivum

Localitie	Soil	Climate ⁽¹⁾ (1) Adapted from Alvares et al. (2013).	Latitude	Longitude	Altitude (m)
Localitie	Soil	Climate ⁽¹⁾ (1) Adapted from Alvares et al. (2013).	--------- (degrees) ---------		Altitude (m)
Castro-PR	CAMBISSOLO HÁPLICO Distrófico típico	Cfa	24.85° S	49.93° W	1001
Itaberá-SP	PLANOSSOLO HÁPLICO Distrófico típico	Cfa	24.06° S	49.15° W	740
Ponta Grossa-PR	LATOSSOLO VERMELHO Distrófico típico	Cfb	25.30° S	49.95° W	908

Crop data	Local cultivation of wheat TBIO Sinuelo varietie
Crop data	Castro	Ponta Grossa	Itaberá
Planting date	Jul 11, 2014	Jun 16, 2014	Jun 03, 2014
Harvest date	Nov 26, 2014	Oct 27, 2014	Oct 15, 2014
Duration of phenological cycle (days)	138	133	134
Emergence ⁽¹⁾ (1) Day After Planting.	7	7	7
Maximum canopy ⁽¹⁾ (1) Day After Planting.	86	88	79
Flowering ⁽¹⁾ (1) Day After Planting.	87	89	83
Duration of flowering⁽¹⁾ (1) Day After Planting.	9	13	17
Senescence ⁽¹⁾ (1) Day After Planting.	96	102	100
Maturity ⁽¹⁾ (1) Day After Planting.	134	130	124
Plant density per hectare	3411800	2338200	2337100

Localitie	Layer (m)	Texture	Soil water content (m³ m⁻³)			K_sat⁽⁴⁾ (4) Saturated hydraulic conductivity. (mm day⁻¹)
Localitie	Layer (m)	Texture	θ_PWP ⁽¹⁾ (1) Volumetric water content at permanent wilting point;	θ_FC ⁽²⁾ (2) Volumetric water content at field capacity;	θ_Sat ⁽³⁾ (3) Volumetric water content at saturation;
Castro	0.00 – 0.10	Clay	0.36	0.50	0.63	418.32
Castro	0.10 – 0.25	Clay	0.33	0.47	0.60	368.23
Castro	0.25 – 0.40	Clay	0.32	0.45	0.62	325.74
Itaberá	0.00 – 0.10	Clay	0.28	0.40	0.55	516.46
Itaberá	0.10 – 0.25	Clay	0.24	0.37	0.54	462.25
Itaberá	0.25 – 0.40	Clay	0.22	0.37	0.54	420.37
Ponta Grossa	0.00 – 0.10	Clay	0.20	0.39	0.51	743.27
Ponta Grossa	0.10 – 0.25	Clay	0.20	0.35	0.50	732.57
Ponta Grossa	0.25 – 0.40	Clay	0.25	0.36	0.54	636.30

Parameter	Castro		Itaberá		Ponta Grossa
Parameter	SI	Ranking	SI	Ranking	SI	Ranking
-------------------------------------------- Crop Phenology --------------------------------------------
CC_o: Soil surface covered by an individual seedling at 90% emergence (%) ⁽²⁾ (2) Conservative for a given specie but can or may be cultivar specific;	0.07	11	0.10	11	0.07	10
CC_x: Maximum canopy cover (%) ⁽³⁾ (3) Dependent on environment and/or management;	0.76	4	0.58	5	0.72	5
CDC: Canopy decline coefficient (% day⁻¹) ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.74	5	0.35	7	0.52	7
Z_mín: Minimum effective rooting depth (m) ⁽³⁾ (3) Dependent on environment and/or management;	0.00	20	0.01	17	0.00	23
Z_máx: Maximum effective rooting depth (m) ⁽³⁾ (3) Dependent on environment and/or management;	0.19	9	0.10	12	0.00	16
Shape factor describing root zone expansion ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.00	23	0.00	19	0.00	23
------------------------------------------- Crop transpiration --------------------------------------------
Kc_TR,x: Crop coefficient when canopy is complete but prior to senescence ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.88	3	0.91	4	1.00	2
Decline of crop coefficient as a result of ageing, nitrogen deficiency, etc. (% day⁻¹) ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.08	10	0.19	9	0.18	8
Ke: Effect of canopy cover on reducing soil evaporation in late season stage (%) ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.00	19	0.00	23	0.00	22
------------------------------ Biomass production and yield formation ------------------------------
WP: Water productivity normalized for ETo* e CO₂ (g m⁻²) ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.98	2	0.98	2	0.98	3
Water productivity normalized for ETo e CO₂ during yield formation (%) ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.00	18	0.00	21	0.00	20
HI_o: Reference harvest index (%) ⁽⁴⁾ (4) Cultivar specific.	1.00	1	1.00	1	1.00	1
Maximum possible increase of HI (%) ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.00	23	0.00	23	0.01	14
------------------------------------------------- Stresses --------------------------------------------------
p_exp.lower: Soil water depletion threshold for canopy expansion - Upper threshold ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.01	16	0.01	18	0.01	15
p_exp.upper: Soil water depletion threshold for canopy expansion - Lower threshold ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.00	22	0.00	22	0.00	18
Shape factor for water stress coefficient for canopy expansion ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.00	21	0.00	20	0.00	21
p_sto: Soil water depletion threshold for stomatal control - Upper threshold ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.03	12	0.01	14	0.04	11
Shape factor for water stress coefficient for stomatal control ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.03	14	0.02	13	0.00	19
p_sen: Soil water depletion threshold for canopy senescence - Upper threshold ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.01	17	0.11	10	0.02	13
Shape factor for Water stress coefficient for canopy senescence ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.00	23	0.00	23	0.00	23
p_pol: Soil water depletion threshold for failure of pollination - Upper threshold ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.00	23	0.00	23	0.00	23
Volume at anaerobiotic point (with reference to saturation) (%) ⁽⁴⁾ (4) Cultivar specific. ^, ⁽³⁾ (3) Dependent on environment and/or management;	0.03	13	0.01	15	0.02	12
Minimum air temperature below which pollination starts to fail (cold stress) (°C) ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.00	23	0.19	8	0.16	9
Maximum air temperature above which pollination starts to fail (heat stress) (°C) ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.21	8	0.00	23	0.00	23
Minimum growing degrees required for full biomass production (°C day⁻¹) ⁽¹⁾ (1) Conservative generally applicable;	0.43	7	0.39	6	0.55	6
------------------------------------------- Field management -------------------------------------------
Soil Fertility ⁽³⁾ (3) Dependent on environment and/or management;	0.56	6	0.96	3	0.97	4
Mulches ⁽³⁾ (3) Dependent on environment and/or management;	0.02	15	0.01	16	0.00	17

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[1] *Corresponding author: skreutzrosa@gmail.com

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Sensitivity analysis of the AquaCrop model for wheat crop in Campos Gerais region, Paraná1 1 This work is part of the first author’s Master Dissertation.

ABSTRACT

Sensitivity analysis of the AquaCrop model for wheat crop in Campos Gerais region, Paraná¹ 1 This work is part of the first author’s Master Dissertation.